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journal: mac
Five Reasons Why There WILL Be Macs in 2010
If there has ever been a more compelling argument for the all-in-one hardware and software system working the iPod and iTunes are it.
It’s hard to tell whether Chris Seibold is serious or very bad at comedy but he has managed to post a Dvorak-esque article entitled “Five Reasons Why There Will Be No Macs in 2010”. Well I am here to present a nice counter argument to that. The era of the all-in-one hardware and software solution is here and alive now and this is why Apple is smart enough to stick with it:
1. Leopard
We don’t yet know the details of this mysterious release but it is safe to say that Apple is taking notice of Vista and planning accordingly. We can guess at three key features/improvements: resolution independent UI, improved Spotlight searching and an improved Finder. The first two are are fairly easy to guess at. The basis for resolution independent UIs is already in Tiger (granted it isn’t enabled) and looking at the way Apple is going with its hardware (higher resolution screens) it’s easy to see why they would want to look at implementing this. Spotlight is obviously a starting point and it would be a HUGE surprise if we didn’t see an improvement in meta data handling in Leopard. The improved Finder is based just on the job opening for a Finder developer but seeing as Leopard is still almost year away we could see it feature.
These show that Apple is looking at how it can match Vista and outperform it. Apple isn’t prepared to drop the ball. And don’t expect Apple to have taken these latest security scares lightly, they may not have done much damage to users systems but they were patched pretty quickly. I fully expect Apple to step up it’s security in Leopard.
2. The Switch from PPC
Yes, the PPC is very powerful, we all thought that it wouldn’t be beaten by Intel at the high end though we had pretty much accepted that the G5 couldn’t go in a laptop and the G4 was, well… it was slowly becoming embarrassing. With the switch to Intel, Apple can finally match and outperform the PC market in terms of processing power in it’s laptops. But that isn’t the only place. If benchmarks are anything to go by these new Intel chips may match the high end G5s in terms of power, and considering that the PowerMacs probably won’t feature the Yonah core chips but instead the Conroe chips due at the end of this year things may not look so bad after all.
And then people point out that the MacBook Pro has a lower battery life than the PowerBook when it is supposed to have a higher performance per watt ratio. The thing is, this is true. The MacBook Pro doesn’t have that much lower battery life than the PowerBook G4 yet it not only has a much powerful processor, it has 2 cores. Plus when you factor in the fact that the screen is even brighter you can see that it is actually very impressive that the battery life hasn’t shrunk to less than 2 hours.
3. The iPod and iTunes
If there has ever been a more compelling argument for the all-in-one hardware and software system working the iPod and iTunes are it. They integrate so well with each other in a way that is only possible with the same company making both. The Mac and Mac OS X are just the same. Only a company making both products could make them work so well with each other. Apple can optimise OS X more for the hardware because it knows the hardware it can run on. It makes OS X more stable.
Plus the iPod is helping the Mac gain market share. Sure, the Mac’s market share hit an all time low of 1.98% in 2004 but surely the fact that it has doubled since then shows that it isn’t dead. Remember, this is 2006 not 2004.
4. Pounds and Pence
What do you think the profit margin on OS X and iLife are? Probably pretty high if you look at it simply. But when you think that the huge amount of money Apple makes from it’s large profit margins on the Mac that then gets put back into R&D you’ll see that if Apple just sold software the profit margin would be a lot less than it is today. I doubt that OS X’s entire R&D budget comes just from OS X sales. The huge majority of it comes from Mac sales because that’s where Apple’s profits are.
Plus this is 2006. Macs aren’t overly expensive any more? Sure they aren’t budget computers but if you looked at similar PCs you’d find that those aren’t exactly budget either. The amount of people that say “This £299 Dell is cheaper than the £929 iMac” don’t realise that the iMac is FAR more powerful, more feature filled and all round a much better deal. When you look at what your £299 gets you it is very little compared to the £929 you spend on the iMac.
5. Steve Jobs
This is the single most important reason that the Mac will be alive and kicking in 2010. Steve Jobs just won’t allow the Mac to go away. The whole idea of the software and hardware being sold as one package and integrating as they do is one that Jobs has had since the original Mac. One of the first things he did when he came back to Apple was to axe the clones. He strongly believes in this idea, and at Apple what Jobs believes in pretty much goes. He likes controlling everything, from the big to the small. He wants his computers to look good, front and back, inside and out. The Mac has pretty much shaped the way that computers are today. The use of beige, the standard layout of a laptop, abandoning beige for colours and then white/aluminium. Why abandon one of the most influential products ever created?
The Future is Bright
Sure, some people may want to install OS X on custom built PCs but they aren’t the majority. Most people buy the Mac because it just works. There aren’t many computers that you can buy that work straight from the box. If I was to spec up a PC of similar specs to the iMac or the MacBook Pro I would probably find out that it comes out cheaper. But then when I put in the value of OS X and iLife it would probably roughly match up. And then when I put in the values of what OS X and iLife will have to sell at for Apple to survive then it would most likely go over. And sure, there may be a few people that would like a bigger HD instead of a built in iSight but what is more valuable? A few more more GB of space on top of the several 100GB you probably already have or a high quality webcam that works straight out of the box with you computer, no plugging in and configuring require. If you are really that strapped for disk space then why not invest in an external disk drive? Look at Apple hardware and compare it to PC hardware. How many PC laptops are as well designed as the MacBook Pro? None that I can think of. Apple has an attention to detail that no-one else has and that is the reason why the Mac exists.
The only people that would win from a situation where the Mac as hardware vanishes would be the PC makers and the few who want to build their own Mac. The people who would lose would be all the people that buy the Mac for what it is, an extension to your life.
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thinkback
I’m not sure what benefit anyone would obtain from the Mac disappearing. Dvorak-inspired—yeah, that fits the bill. I think it’s time to give such folks the internet equivalent of chloroform: don’t read them, don’t react to them, don’t post about them. Sooner rather than later, they will dry up and blow away.
I was wondering if a Mac clone company - wholly owned by Apple - would be viable?
Claris worked. How about MacClone, Inc.?
Hey, what about NeXT Computer Inc., ‘The makers of fine Mac clone computers’?! Apple could ALWAYS have a 4-6 month lead over these two companies.
And FWIW, MacClone Inc. would have the benefit of being SJ’s idea and not JS’s 
I, personally love Macs, and I’m a programmer. However, I can only afford to buy a new Mac every few years or so (my Quicksilver looks older everyday). I would be absolutely THRILLED if I could go, pick and choose the hardware I want and build my own Mac. Truth be known, I’d probably spend more money. I’d get the BEST motherboard, the BEST processor, the BEST video card (512 Megs sounds good against my current 32Meg card) and a couple 500 Gig HDDs.
Unfortunately Apple, while it does offer EXCELLENT computers at very competative prices - it doesn’t offer things like Processor choice (AMD vs. Intel for example). Or Video card choice (ATI, NVidia, or some offbrand). Neither does it offer choice in things like DVD drive manufacturer. These things on the surface seem petty - but they are important to many people. Myself included, and I’ve have both Macs and PC’s for years - the whole time thinking - “Man if I could just build the Mac with xxxxxx...” Now that dream is closer than ever, but Apple wont allow it. Very Frustrating.
I love my Mac - but I’d love it more if I put it together. That said, my next purchase this summer will be a Mac-Book. So, please don’t hate me 
I’m just trying to show a different point of view.
Get off the crack folks, the switch to Intel is the death nail for Apple. They will be out of the computer business by 2010. If they’re lucky they’ll still be selling ipods, but I doubt it. Microsoft and the cell phone makers are going to take that away from them.
Levon, Apple’s M.O. for years has been to create hardware that was designed specifically for the Mac OS, and and OS designed specifically for the hardware. That’s one thing that I think we can count on, whether there’s PPC inside, Intel, AMD, or what have you. The sum of the parts is what makes the Mac what it is.
| Nick | Mar. 07, 2006 | |
| 2:56 pm |
Hello John.. I mean Levon. Sorry but how does switching to more powerful processors imply that Apple is gonna go anywhere? You are saying that one of the most recognisable brands in the world is just gonna fade into obscurity in 4 years.
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| Mar. 07, 2006 | |
| 3:00 pm |
Get off the crack folks, the switch to Intel is the death nail for Apple.
Yeah, because they’d totally throw all their money at R&D;to design Intel Mac just to kill them off.
Of course Macs will be around. Everyone predicts the death of Mac/Apple this is nothing new.
I don’t care about 2010, today it’s 2006 and I have a new iMac that works great and is the most beautiful computer I have ever used. That’s what matters.
Way to go on the counter-article to Chris Seibolds
<shrug>
Prognostications like the referred article: “Five Reasons Why There Will Be No Macs in 2010” are wastes of time.
A great article! Well done! Keep up the good work!
Thank you!
The huge majority of it comes from Mac sales because that’s where Apple’s profits are.
Why does everyone say this, yet not back it up with numbers from Apple’s earnings reports? This simply is NOT true. Apple characterizes software as “high margin” and hardware, including iPod, as “low margin”.
Let’s look at some numbers (info available in the PR section of Apple’s website):
Last quarter Apple’s Mac revenue (destop + portable) = $1.724 B
Last quarter Apple’s software revenue = $325 M
iPod revenue (not quite as relevant in this argument) = $2.906 B
Gross profit was $565 M
How much of that is profit? This is where intelligent conjecture comes in. The overall gross margin was 27.9% Mac Hardware was most definitely less than that, but I’ll indulge the hardware fans and say that Mac profit was the full 27.9%
So 27.9% * 1,724,000,000 = $481 M
How much does Apple’s software development cost? If Tiger is a guide, roughly $10 M per quarter for OS X. This area is a bit grey, but I’ll say R&D;for software, plus distribution costs runs Apple $30 M per quarter.
So $325 M - $30 M = $295 M
So before other operating costs, which I’ll just speculate are shared in proportion to revenue generated, Macs generate $481 M in profit, and software generated $295 M in profit.
What’s my point? Hardware and software profits are in the same *ballpark*. Please don’t make unqualified statements to the effect that HW and SW are worlds apart for Apple. Personally I think it would be much easier for Apple to triple software sales (and profitability to boot) by opening OS X, rather than doubling hardware sales.
Opening OS X to all PCs is a financially viable, and even smart move.
PS - please nobody say “But Apple wouldn’t want to write all the drivers for the universe of third-party stuff....” Writing drivers isn’t Apple’s problem - it’s the device manufacturer’s. Do you really think MS writes drivers for all that stuff?
A-FREAKING-MEN.
And I would like to add that if Steve Jobs does indeed decide to discontinue Mac hardware, I will be the first in line to stone him.
Right after I get done with Michael Dell.
Ahhh Everybody want a byte out of Apple these days… It Apple wasn’t important then… why are these people talking about it?
Apple comes up with the ideas for others to copy. If only Apple was able to keep what they invented (or made popular) to themselves… Mac OS -> MS Windows… Newton -> Palm ... first Laser Printer (now many) ...
Anyway… iPod/iTunes seems to break the pattern.. and life is good.
I predict Dell going down the toilet before Apple 
( Maybe Dell should be called Dull )
Trust me, Dell won’t go down for years. Perhaps someday, but it won’t be a long time, since they are currently the number 1 pusher of computer boxes.
But Apple taking Macs out either. You don’t just switch to Intel and then can the whole product line 4 years later. We’ve been with PPC for what, 15 years? I think, unless something comes along that RADICALLY changes the way we process and store information, Macs will move for many years to come.
| Mar. 07, 2006 | |
| Arden | 10:09 pm |
Jake:
Even though I have to say I don’t really like or share the opinion that Apple should open OSX I still want to praise you for your explanation and analysis (rationality is sorely missing in most mac blogs and forums these days) of the financial situation of Apple and your opinion of the drivers. I couldn’t have said it better. Kudos.
Eduo
Not wanting to feed the trolls but phones are not going to replace the iPod. I’m not saying that the iPod will retain its marketshare forever, though. Eventually things just have to even out. And keep in mind that Apple will put iTunes in more phones.
While phones are certainly capable music players - very good ones in fact - they are not dedicated to that purpose and the iPod is. Readers are welcome to figure out the rest for themselves.
Eventually things just have to even out.
Do they, though? Did things even out in the OS market, or is there one predominant choice and lots of other smaller choices?
It’s very possible that the iPod will become to music players what Windows has become to operating systems: the default, where you’d be crazy to use anything else.
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| Mar. 08, 2006 | |
| Arden | 6:09 am |
Dear Arden said: “Trust me, Dell won’t go down for years.”
I did not say Dell was going to go down.... I said they would before Apple. Dell is just a commodity manufacturer… no R&D;(maybe very little) ... nothing original… no inventions going on in Dell…
Dell only pushes Dull little boxes out the door…
Apple re-invents the computing world for others to follow.
Richard, don’t be so sure. Dell happen to be very good at what they do (pushing boxes out the door, and not just little consumer-grade Mini wannabes). Honestly, I think both Dell and Apple are going to be around a lot longer than anybody else thinks.
This isn’t to say that I particularly like Dell. But realistically, I don’t see them going anywhere, since every time I turn around some person or some company or some school has just dropped another chunk of change on another Dell box, or set of boxes. Dell’s innovations, if you will, happen to be in the sales, not the manufacturing, of the computer.
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| Mar. 08, 2006 | |
| Arden | 6:23 am |
I agree very much on what the writer is saying. However, I think they still have some work to do with the MacBookPro. I burnt my finger on one of them that was just playing a song from GarageBand. I think it’s great that they put a coreduo in a small machine like that, but I can’t begin to tell you the heat that thing was putting out. For two days my finger was bright red and over sensitive to heat. I was simply trying to look behind the machine and my ring finger touched the unit around the left hand side towards the bezel. I pulled my hand back quickly as if I had touched a hot iron. I then tried to pick up another MacBookPro with my other hand that was idle and I could not keep it in the palm of my hand for more than 5 seconds as it was just way to hot. I can’t stress enough how much the MacBookPro may be a great fast machine, but an unsafe one at that.
Will,
I don’t believe a word of what you’re saying. Period.
The MacBook Pro burns your fingers.
Communists eat children.
Native Americans are incline to alcoholism.
The sun goes around the earth.
All Cretetians are liers…
Come on, please. Tell us the truth. You were trying to cook an egg on your girlfriend’s Mac, and you didn’t like that the aluminum alloy transmitted the heat even to the side panels…
Good Night, And Good Luck.
Plus when you factor in the fact that the screen is even brighter you can see that it is actually very impressive that the battery life hasn’t shrunk to less than 2 hours.
but ppl were choosing other laptops over powerbooks because of the screen. many ppl were upset at the battery life. it doesnt matter that the screen is brighter, one of its feature was supposed to be better battery life. apple didn’t deliver. its less then what ppl hated about the albooks. u cant deny that it has bad battery life and this is a major upset for laptop customer. other than that i think your on the money. Apple will be a around a while. i loved the PPC, but the fact that normal pc users see that a mac has an intel, they’ll be more interested because theyve been using it for a long time. i think the real question is will MS be around in 2010? apple, and linux are gaining much more attention.
| Mar. 08, 2006 | |
| 6:30 pm |
Microsft will definately be around in 2010. Microsoft isn’t exactly standing still, and even though alternatives have become more widely known, Windows is still the OS that everyone has heard of, and will remain that way for a while. Microsft will be around for a long time after that. I think the big thing that will really bring Windows into the 21st century is the complete UI overhaul scheduled to take place in Vienna, an OS to be released in 2010.
| Mar. 08, 2006 | |
| Liam | 7:05 pm |
1.
If the Macintosh vanished the other “losers” would be all the WinTel companies that depend on Apple for their R&D;