If history has taught us anything, it’s that most tech companies don’t play well with others. In this way, they are a lot like teenage girls or film producers. Sure, they work together because they have to, but none of them ever seem very happy about it. This helps to explain why the buying public is so often forced to choose between products and media formats that are generally incompatible with each other in every possible way. Often times, this incompatibility is engineered and thrust upon us by the competing companies as a way to ensure that they won’t have to share any more than necessary. So here we are, yet again, this time looking at two major formats vying to replace your stack of DVDs and show you everything you didn’t know you’d been missing: HD DVD and Blu-ray.

I should state right off the bat that I do not own any players or titles from either camp, although in my defense I’m pretty sure nobody else does either. In fact, that’s one of the many problems faced by supporters of both formats, but we’ll get into that later. In preparation for this article, I went to the local electronics store to check out as much as I could in person and I will be discussing my findings. For the most part, however, I’m going to be focusing more on the factors involved in the current format wars¹, as well as a little historical perspective.

In the coming years, Blu-ray and HD DVD will be heavily competing for
consumer support.  Who will be the winner?  Nobody knows at this point.

Porn

Alright, let’s just get this one out of the way. Many people will tell you that the porn industry’s decision to go with VHS was the decisive blow that ended the last round of fighting a couple decades ago. To hear some tell, it was pretty much the only factor. Those individuals are wrong, of course, but you have to be patient with them; after all, they don’t get out of their parents’ basements too often. This is not to imply that the porn industry’s decision to back VHS wasn’t a factor at all, but I think it was less of one than many people contend.

The relevance here is the recent news that the porn industry has decided to get behind HD DVD, so to speak. Apparently, they just didn’t feel welcomed by the Blu-ray camp, although Sony denies any animosity on their part and claims something along the lines of “the more merrier.” We’ll probably never know what really happened, but I just don’t see this being as much of an issue as some others do. Sure, porn is big business. But word on the street has it that this stuff is pretty easy to find on something called “the Internet.” And if Blu-ray wins this war, I think we can safely assume that everyone will fall in line. Besides… HD porn? Are you sure you want to see that? I’m just saying.

Storage

Despite the fact that both formats use some variation of blue laser technology, one of the biggest differences between the two is storage capacity. Blu-ray is obviously out in front here, and that’s presumably how it will stay. No matter what the HD DVD camp does to improve storage, Blu-ray can follow suit and negate the advantage. The question is, does it really matter? It seems so far that movies, including their special features and all of the whiz-bang next-gen extras, fit easily onto a single disc from either camp. Other factors, like cost and print transfer quality, will most likely play a larger role in determining customer satisfaction with both formats when it comes to movies. When it comes to data storage, however, more is pretty much always better, and if Blu-ray can gain traction in the computer world it may be able to parlay that foothold into something more.

The Playstation 3 already has
Blu-ray capability built in.
(Courtesy of The Speculist)

Trojan Horse

Clearly, Sony had a similar strategy in mind when it decided to incorporate Blu-ray technology into its PlayStation 3 gaming console. While the larger storage capacity provides some benefit to the console itself, it also brings some disadvantages. For example, the density of Blu-ray discs and relative newness of the technology mean it’s noticeably slower than standard DVDs. That isn’t much of a problem with movies, but it’s a much bigger issue when it comes to load times for games. The technology may very well benefit the PS3 to a greater extent in the future, but the speed and cost issues make it somewhat of a liability at this point. It’s no surprise, then, that many people think Sony is using the PS3 as a trojan horse to get Blu-ray players into as many houses as possible. As they say, it’s not a bad strategy—if it works.

Video Quality

The two biggest factors that determine video quality on the next-gen formats are compression type and the quality of the transfer from the original film print (since few movies are currently made with digital camera technology). After some early missteps, Blu-ray has adopted the same three codec choices as HD DVD: MPEG2, H.264, and VC-1. So the only real noticeable difference in quality will come from the transfers. Unfortunately for Blu-ray, that seems to be the very problem with some of their early titles. Most indications are that recent titles have been better, but informed consumers have every right to be wary of the early mistakes Blu-ray has made on multiple fronts. Blu-ray’s advantages should have lead to better quality, if anything, but instead they seem to have stumbled out of the gate like a drunken jockey riding a heavily-tranquilized derby horse.

Cost

Xbox 360 with optional
standalone HD DVD player.
(Courtesy of Gizmodo)

HD DVD holds the early lead with regards to having the cheapest players, especially when considering the real world cost instead of the traditionally jacked up list price. However, an argument could certainly be made that the PlayStation 3 is the best overall value on the market- but only if you’re actually interested in everything it has to offer. The Xbox 360’s HD DVD add-on brings its price into the same range as the PS3 as well, but reports so far indicate the latter is much quieter in operation. For stand-alone players, however, HD DVD has a clear lead right now.

The only thing that really matters when it comes to discs is what consumers see when they walk into a store. HD DVD claims that their technology is cheaper on the production end because it is closer to standard DVD technology and therefore requires less tweaking to existing manufacturing equipment. But customers don’t care about that unless it reflects in the price they pay, and so far it doesn’t. In fact, both formats are reasonably close to the cost of standard DVDs, at least for new releases. Neither of the new formats can compete on price or selection with the huge back catalog of DVDs, however, which brings up another point…

Acceptance

Amidst all the discussion and debate is the elephant in the room that neither side wants to discuss: what if they both fail? Traditionally, consumers have been hesitant to jump into a war between multiple formats until one of them has started to pull ahead. After all, nobody wants to waste their money on what might turn out to be a very expensive and inconveniently-shaped paper weight. The catch-22 of course is that if everyone waits neither format will have that opportunity. This would be where Sony’s PS3 strategy might have given it a distinct advantage, but sales so far haven’t been stellar enough to trigger any type of consumer confidence in Blu-ray’s edge. Another problem is that market penetration of HDTVs in general isn’t exceptionally high, a hurdle that the traditional DVD never had to face. And even among those who do have HD sets, many seem happy with the quality of regular DVDs upscaled on a progressive scan player.

Digital Competition

In addition to price, apathy, and other factors, Blu-ray and HD DVD face a serious challenge in the form of digital distribution. The video as-is on either HD disc is too big to realistically mass distribute over the web at this point in time, but that doesn’t particularly matter. For one thing, codecs such as DivX HD purport to offer similar quality video and audio at a fraction of the file size. Perhaps more importantly, however, the rise of MP3s and P2P services over the last few years has proven that people are willing to sacrifice quality for convenience. That poses a problem for the HD disc camps, because what they offer is essentially the exact opposite of that equation: higher quality in a disc you still have to go and buy that requires an expensive new piece of equipment and offers a limited selection. And you can’t rip the video and take it with you, either. Some of those factors will change over time, but the most important ones never will. On-demand services from cable companies are another form of competition, and of course IPTV is always “just around the corner.” The latter is mostly vapor at this point and probably won’t be around in any shape that will impact this generation of video, but on-demand services offer a very real threat now.

Hybrid

Some people are hoping that a bridge can be built to ease some tension in the current state of affairs.  It likely isn’t even possible at this point to build a hybrid disc that offers both formats, and even if it were there’s almost zero chance that either camp is interested in such a thing.  (See opening paragraph.) That means any hybrid love is going to have to come from the hardware side.  There is currently one such gizmo, from LG, but it’s more expensive than just buying both players separately and doesn’t offer full functionality on the HD DVD side.  Samsung is reportedly working on a similar player, due this summer, which may or may not be cheaper but will probably still be way too expensive to appeal to any sort of real market.

The other form of hybridization is a somewhat weak attempt by the HD DVD camp to offer discs with both DVD and HD DVD versions of films.  The idea has some merit, but the discs are decidedly more expensive and have very little chance of succeeding at their current price point.  Anyone who already has an HD DVD player has little use for the standard DVD portion and will most likely buy the cheaper stand-alone HD DVD disc and save several bucks.  Likewise, anyone who doesn’t have an HD DVD player will probably not be inclined to spend more money for a disc with features they can’t use and that may be obsolete in the not-so-distant future.  Sony is reportedly working on plans for a Blu-ray version of this same concept, though I have no idea why.  The only chance I see for this sort of concept to succeed is if the HD content were essentially thrown in as a loss leader, added value for no extra cost.  This would provide a way for HD content ownership to build up very quickly, most likely reaching the tipping point sooner than it would otherwise.  There are some risks, however, and I doubt that anyone at the studios or manufacturers will ever let this happen.

Hands On

I saved this part for the end because, frankly, it’s the least important. I know that sounds counter-intuitive, but stay with me for a moment. In my admittedly little experience with both formats, one thing became clear pretty quickly: they both look great, they’re both very good formats, and I’m not sure either of them is good enough. Despite what some people argue, I think both formats look significantly better than standard DVDs. Perhaps it’s not as much of an improvement as DVDs were over VHS, and maybe it isn’t enough to ensure that one of them will manage to topple DVD, but it is noticeable nonetheless.

The early problems Blu-ray had seem to be mostly rectified by now if my experience was any indication, and the fact that both formats share so much in common (despite what either camp will likely tell you) means that most people probably couldn’t differentiate between them. It’s possible that there is something to separate the two if you have the opportunity to take them home and live with both formats for a while, but few people are likely to have that experience. Lacking as it was, I would wager that my day of browsing was at least as much investigating as the average consumer is liable to do. Ultimately, it’s difficult to see why we’re being put through this yet again for two products that are clearly at least step-siblings.²

Bold Predictions

So, here’s the part where I play “tech analyst,” which is to say that I will make something up and present it to you as fact. I will even put it into blurb form so that newspapers can use it and quote me as an expert. Please bookmark this if you would like to return to it in the future and laugh at how astoundingly wrong I was:

“Because of DVDs, average consumers currently expect their movies to look better than what they watch on television,” said James Viviani, an analyst for The Deep Thought Group. “As more people skip the theater and enjoy movie night at home, coinciding with falling prices on large HD sets, I expect HDTV to pick up significant steam in the next year or two. When that happens, people will begin to realize how inferior their DVD collection is visually to the content they are viewing on TV and will begin seeking alternatives. As prices drop for both Blu-ray and HD DVD, content will be what distinguishes the two in the minds of consumers, and that’s why I give the edge to Blu-ray, despite its stupid name.”

You can find more of my rantings here and elsewhere on this site. Be sure to check out UnnDunn’s review of the Xbox 360’s HD DVD add-on.

¹Although, to be honest this one is more of a format pillow fight.↩

²Granted, perhaps a little more Cruel Intentions than Brady Bunch.↩