I think you’re missing Enderle’s point. He’s saying that if Windows Vista is as good if not better than Mac OS X (and you seem to agree that might be the case), what is the incentive for people to choose Macintosh over Windows? Enderle is saying that Apple needs to move aggressively to regain the lead between now and next year, because if Vista comes along and it’s even close to as good as OS X—if the security woes are minimized, if the UI is sufficiently spit-shined—much of the momentum Apple gained from the stagnation of Windows will be gone. He’s overdramatizing the issue of course—there will never be another launch like Windows 95, and we really need to stop touting every freakin’ Windows release as “the biggest since ...”—but his point is a solid one: Apple can’t rely on Microsoft’s incompetence in order to compete.

How can anybody compare vaporware with actually shipping software?  Add the fact that for the most part, people who have upgraded from 98 to XP still have the sour taste in their mouth.  Sure it fixed a lot of bugs that made it crash, but it also opened up the tcp ports so that everybody and their grandmother can come in.  It’s like a choice between a punch in the nose or a kick in the nads which one do you want?

The problem that most people seem to be forgetting is that Vista is going to have steep hardware requirements, which will effectively make most current hardware useless in terms of upgrading.  Couple that with the fact that it’s not tested in enterprise enivronments, and it’s safe to say that Apple is not in over their heads yet. 

I think people are going to need to see Vista in action for a while to justify upgrading.  Imagine buying a new machine with expensive hardware only to have all of the problems that you had before (spyware clutering and crippling the machine, virii, etc.) Until it’s proven that Vista is a winner, I think most people will stick with their current setup.  Either way, it’s not on Apple to “dazzle” us with shiny new technology until people start moving to Vista in droves.

Slightly edited for syntax.

Pilky, I’m going to slap you with the apostrophe stick…

Though the referenced article may be Enderle all over again, Windows(tm) Yonder(tm) will not be Windows95 all over again. Its eye candy will be remembered everywhere in the press and by most users as having been around for a while, thanks to the success and platform growth of OS X. .Net frameworks will not have the same traction or penetration as the Win32 API. Windows security, not a driving issue in 95, will be a claim that absolutely no one will accept at face value. In ‘95, Mac hardware running a flaky OS 7, then migrating to the PowerPC, was a question in most user’s and observer’s minds. The migration in 2006 of OS X to x86 is an answer (particularly to observers). One could go on and on.

However, Yonder(tm) does represent the strongest technical challenge to OSX (stronger in its way than Linux is to AAPL’s basic business model), so AAPL had better have something Panther-like in scope and speed for their Leopard debut.

Jobs came back in ‘97, actually.  The acquisition was announced at the very end of ‘96, but let’s call it ‘97 because the important things happened in ‘97:  the Rhapsody project starting, Jobs taking over, etc.

Newsflash: Apple doesn’t rely on Microsoft’s incompetence in order to compete. When people talk about “Apple zealots,” they’re talking about people who constantly point out that Microsoft is incompetent. And most PC users simply ignore those zealots. Win95 was good enough for most people, and most people bought it. Longhorn might come closer to the Mac OS, but that still just means it will be good enough for most and most will still buy it. A better quality MS OS doesn’t change anything for Apple.

If people bought Macs because the OS was superior to Windows, many more people would currently own Macs. People buy Macs because they like the hardware, or because they want to avoid mal-/spy-/adware, or because their favorite applications are on the Mac, or because the don’t want to contribute to MS’s hegemony, or because their personality is simply better suited to the Mac way of doing things on a computer. None of those things will change with Longhorn.

What Enderle doesn’t understand is that Apple only competes with MS indirectly. Longhorn will not kill Apple, nor will Tiger or Leopard or OS X on Intel enable Apple to bring MS low. Apple will retain their small-but-fabulously-profitable niche, and continue to provide us with great products. That’s enough for Steve Jobs, and it’s enough for me.

You make a good point, though.  Apple had the best product in 1995 in many respects, but they weren’t nearly as well positioned as they are today.  They had the plague, you see.  Now that they don’t, I think they can easily ride out the Vista wave.

“You” being Pilky.

Enderle is a mouthpiece and shill for MS. The outline for article under discussion probably comes from the highest levels at MS. It’s written to assure developers and corporate IT people that Vista will be everything that OSX is and more so there is no reason to switch.

But here is the most interesting part:

“While Vista is unlikely to displace massive amounts of in-place Linux platforms it should reduce Linux growth measurably (Linux should still be favored for most Unix migrations). Were Microsoft to come out with a platform that was more similar to Unix that also integrated with .NET and used enhanced Microsoft development tools this slowed growth could advance into competitive displacement. There is, however, no indication yet that Microsoft is planning such a platform.  But the opportunity can’t be lost on many. A future offering could address this competitive Microsoft weakness.”

MS is planning to go UNIX!

Where have I seen this before?

Someone says that Windows may be just marginally better than dirt, and hordes of zealots descend to smite them. I’m not saying that everyone who posted is a zealot, but some people just need to accept that maybe their choice isn’t absolute.

Then again, I may just be blowing this way out of proportion.

Good article, Pilky

Where’s kuaidang when you need a post full of rhetoric and packed to the gills with hyperlinks to Microsoft propoganda sites.

You guys are missing the point of Enderle’s article. He is saying microsoft now has the backend power with their server platforms to affect the frontend operating systems. If the mac becomes incompatible with these server technologies that could mean trouble.

We all know the truth… that the mac user base isn’t larger because businesses use MS. Because of this, companies build web applications based on MS technology. So here’s what Enderle’s really saying… that businesses will adopt this and make stuff that isn’t compatible with the mac. And that right there is what will kill the mac. We all imagine the future where we have access to all of our computer related capabilities (including the web) while on-the-go. If MS implements this stuff and it’s not comapatible with macs then macs will die. Believe me, I’m the biggest mac supporter and have been since the start, but the macs biggest problem has always been incompatibility with MS. Right now we enjoy the most comapatible times, but if that changes it could spell trouble.

If the first post of this thread is any indication, however, things may not be too bleak at all:

http://bbs.xvsxp.com/forums/index.php?s=682 a5dd67b8f4d124c036413cc00164f&act=ST&f=9 &t=5929&st=0

And yes, that is the same kuaidang.

“Someone says that Windows may be just marginally better than dirt, and hordes of zealots descend to smite them. I’m not saying that everyone who posted is a zealot, but some people just need to accept that maybe their choice isn’t absolute.”
MO, the issue here has nothing to do with Vista’s quality, but whether it’ll hurt Apple.

Enderle gets it up the ass from both Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer to say this bullshit. Anyone who takes this fool seriously is an idiot himself.

Funny to see MS fans get excited over shiny buttons and transparenciy effects that have been around since 2001 in Mac OS X.

The saddest thing is the video stream. Even with broadband, you sit there waiting for a 600mb file. How anyone can get excited over this?

Thank Jobs for OS X and Quicktime 7. Did i forget to mention iTunes?

MS is pathetic.

If the mac becomes incompatible with these server technologies that could mean trouble.

If it does, it is because Microsoft made them incompatible with the Mac, not the other way around… just a point of clarification.

Apple has a lot of forward momentum at the moment, it has a solid hardware line up

What makes you think that it’s solid?  If it was so solid then why changeover to X86?  Given the speed at which Apple is saying they want to make this changeover it seems like they are trying to distance themselves from their current hardware as much as possible.  Right now, Apple is lacking PCI-Express, good firewire and USB2 implementations, SATA RAID, high quality laptop LCD’s, dual core, SLI, various high-end video cards, and much more.  Not a single one of their machines is performance competitive with best-in-class Windows boxes, they lack a media center platform, and their PPC processors are barely improving at all.

that can only get better with the next crop of Intel processors in them

Actually, it’s only going to get worse for the next few years.  Until all Mac software gets optimized for X86 and 64-bit then they are going to lag far behind Windows.  All the professional apps are going to come over slowly and be poorly optimized (many were barely optimized for the G5).  It’s going to be tough for various people to watch Mactels getting faster and faster while they’re stuck on PPC because Logic, ProTools, FCP, Photoshop, or Quark doesn’t run (well) on Mactel.  It’s going to be especially bad because Vista is going to be faster than XP and Intel showing us that their next-gen procs won’t improve performance much at all while AMD continues to move ahead.

As the software starts showing up on OS X86 and people seeing that’s it’s not a free or portable upgrade then they can consider Windows as an alternative.  The same thing happened the last time Apple made a big transition… lots of pros moved to Windows 2000 and XP.  This time will be no different and maybe even worse if AMD can grab more marketshare.

and OSX currently has a feature set close enough to what Vista aims to do to allow Apple to mop up a lot of the loose ends with 10.5.

I don’t see that as true because the majority of the loose ends for Apple will be porting and optimizing everything for x86 not to mention getting everyone to buy new software.  No pro wants to run Photoshop CS or CS2 in “G3 mode” on a Pentium M.

At the most Vista will stunt Apple, but not by much. But as long as hell stays nice and chilly Apple won’t go down. Now we just need to make sure that Microsoft doesn’t know how to start a fire....

Apple’s gonna get a huge shock because PC sales are gonna skyrocket when Vista RTM’s in the 3rd quart of next year.  Everyone has been waiting for this release for years now and Microsoft is putting forth their biggest marketing campaign yet.  PC hardware prices are going to drop dramatically and Apple’s prices will probably increase because of the higher price of Intel procs compared to PPC’s.  At the very least Apple’s margins will take a significant hit.  OS X86’s are going to be a hard sell when everyone knows it doesn’t support a lot of Mac software (or run it well) and other manufacturers are selling the exact same configs at much lower prices.

because they want to avoid mal-/spy-/adware

SP2 is pretty good as far as security goes, Windows Server 2003 is much better (even better than major Linux distros), and IIS 6 is much better than Apache.  Microsoft has been getting much better with security and Vista will only improve on it.  I don’t see malware being much of a problem on Windows Vista or Longhorn Server.

A lot of people are going to migrate to Vista.  The built-in Media Center capabilites, security, and speed will draw a ton of people to Home Premium and I don’t see Apple competing with Ultimate Edition.  I mean, it ships with Virtual PC in the box… as well as DVD ripping, a Unix compatible layer, a game performance tweaker, and a bunch of other stuff.  The Ultimate Edition is for all those people who wish they didn’t have to download third-party software to make Windows do certian things. This is the anti-OS X version.  Non-enthusiasts need not apply.

<quote>What makes you think that it’s solid?  If it was so solid then why changeover to X86?  Given the speed at which Apple is saying they want to make this changeover it seems like they are trying to distance themselves from their current hardware as much as possible.  Right now, Apple is lacking PCI-Express, good firewire and USB2 implementations, SATA RAID, high quality laptop LCD’s, dual core, SLI, various high-end video cards, and much more.  Not a single one of their machines is performance competitive with best-in-class Windows boxes, they lack a media center platform, and their PPC processors are barely improving at all.</quote>
Okay, fine. It’s still quite possibly *Apple’s* best, most complete product lineup in many years.

BTW, the Apple laptop LCDs are no better or worse than Dell or IBM LCDs. XBrites they are not (I wish they were), but I’m around Mac and PC laptops everyday. That should give me some shred of credibility.

BTW, the Apple laptop LCDs are no better or worse than Dell or IBM LCDs. XBrites they are not (I wish they were), but I’m around Mac and PC laptops everyday. That should give me some shred of credibility.

Dell does have the Xbrite-type screen as well.  It’s not all that common with them but you can get it and it’s basically the same as an Xbrite minus the backlight.  HP uses their Brightview and high-def LCD’s on most of their laptops and it’s up their with the Xbrite as well.  Still none of them are a match for the Fujitsu Clearview.  IIRC Toshiba uses the same screen as HP on their laptops now too.
I don’t think IBM uses the glossy screens at all but otherwise they have the same technology.

When the writers of OSNEWS even say that the screens on Apple laptops are no match for Thinkpads then you know it’s gotta have some truth to it.

http://www.osnews.com/story.php?news_id=752 9&page=2

You have to remember though that a lot of the applications that are heavily optimised for the PPC and more specifically, Altivec are those that also have PC versions that are heavily optimised for x86 and SSE.

From what I understand, the switch from Altivec to SSE isn’t easy.  I don’t think you can count on any large app going from heavily Altivec optimized to heavily SSE2 optimized.  It took a while for developers to optimize for the G5 so I don’t see how moving to SSE is going to be any easier.

Well, the software for OSX x86 started showing up quite a while ago and a lot of the shareware developers are offering these updates now and for no extra cost. The next big version of Photoshop is most likely going to run on both PPC and Intel Macs and the chances are that when people upgrade their machines they’ll also upgrade the apps that need upgrading.

Shareware and small apps aren’t the problem.  It’s the big ones with expensive licenses that do.  Adobe, Macromedia, Avid, and Microsoft apps are going to require a far amount of new code so getting it for free isn’t a given.

And in my experience, many people don’t upgrade all their apps with a new machine but as a separate process.  Can you imagine what the cost of a new machine would run for a web developer if they had to get new versions of the Creative Suite, Macromedia Studio etc.?  You could easily spend the price of the machine in just software.

I’d estimate that 10-15% of all currently developed Mac apps have a universal binary out, or coming out in the next few weeks.

I’d call that esitmate extremely optimistic.
Here’s a fairly compete list of OS X86 software that is available for download:
http://wiki.osx86project.org/wiki/index.php /X86_software

No Pro apps or even anything with a fairly large codebase (say Photoshop size).  Gimp is there but that’s about it.

And this is before the first Intel macs are due out which is likely to be next summer. By then I wouldn’t be surprised if there was 75-80% of all Mac software currently in development out as a universal binary, which is much better than the number of applications that had OSX versions at OSX’s launch.

I don’t think the percentage will be that high and even if it is you gotta wonder how long it’s gonna take to get that software to users.  Do users have to buy new versions of larger apps?  Are there going to be forced upgrades?

It’s still going to be worse than the OS X early days because Mactel users don’t have the option of booting into another OS when a critical software package isn’t yet ported or runs really badly.  OS X users always had OS 9 and now they have nothing.  Well, maybe they can boot into Windows.. LOL

Then what about the other manufacturers who use Intel processors? Remember that most of the major manufacturers aren’t very interested in Intel’s new chips

When did any manufacturer say they weren’t very interested in the new Intel chips?

so Intel might be offering Apple a large discount on them if they start using them.

Apple’s discount probably comes from and exclusivity contract like the one Gateway, IBM, and Dell were using.  I doubt their discount is big enough to off-set the price difference between PPC’s and X86’s though.  Just to give you an example… Microsoft sold the original Xbox at a loss when it was at the $300 price point.  The Xbox 360 is supposed to have a huge profit margin at $350 and $299 even though it’s processor is far more advanced relative to the current PC technology than the Celeron in the Xbox was in 2001.

Apple, of course, will be more than happy to use chips that are more advanced than it’s competition are using.

They aren’t going to have that chance anymore.  They’re stuck with the same procs everyone else is using minus the abilty to jump to AMD.
Apple is going to have to speed up their release schedule too, which will cause margins too drop (if they want to be competitive).  New procs come out all the time and price drops on those procs happen even more often.  Prices at Dell change nearly every day and HP cahnges aobut once a week. 

You are also assuming that Apple doesn’t drop it’s prices even more.

Why would they?  The absolute cheapest Pentium M Intel makes goes for $230 dollars on pricewatch and runs at 1.5ghz.  That’s not going to work for a $600 Mac Mini.  The Yonah isn’t expected to be any cheaper so unless Apple plans on using really old Pentium M’s no one wants anymore or a bunch of Celeron’s then they’ll have to raise prices or cut margins.

Pentium M’s are really expensive compared to G4’s and G5’s.