I think that Apple’s future may involve that.

I just hope that the marketing campaign doesn’t involve the phrase “The first”

‘Not a shithead’, your comments belie your name; the prior existence of the Pippin is not proof that Apple wouldn’t pursue the stated strategy now, times and market environments do change—the technology and market are far more ready for this sort of move, than in the early 90s.

Looking at Apple’s recent moves, this is quite a logical conclusion to draw, and hardly deserves your venom; will Apple actually do it? That’s the big question, and likely rests on the kind of deals they’re able to make with the content owners.

Hey shithead--er, I mean, Not a shithead (whatever),

Hint: don’t post on online forums and blogs unless you know how to not be a jackass.

Furthermore:
-Pippin was a game console, not a media set-top box: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Pippin
-What does netboot or mobile home directories have to do with this? Wouldn’t it be possible to, say, sync media from a computer and a set-top box over the network (e.g. Bonjour) or Bluetooth/USB/etc… using an iTunes-like interface on the computer? It could be done very much like syncing an iPod. All you would need the computer for is syncing with the set-top box.
-Alternately, why couldn’t media streaming be done with a technology along the lines of AirTunes?

Why do you think Apple made the big $1.25B flash memory deal recently? A) for iPods B) for media centers that use flash memory for boot/storage.

I put forth a similar idea (minus the DVD) on a comments page (so I guess it really doesn’t count), but tied in 4GB of flash memory as a cache for instant-on playing of content.  The user-selected choice begins to play immediately while the network stream delivers the next pieces via 802.11n or UWB.

There are still lots of options such as receiving broadcast/cable TV signals (or not), recording such signals (or not), choice of display output ports (HDMI/DVI/Firewire/component), etc.  Be interesting to see what Apple includes.

That thing looked like an old Macbox with a video case over it. What a joke!

Given that dashboard widgets are just html running on a local server on your computer, the set top box could also allow you to remotely display widgets on your TV.

Also, the Intel switch has opened up the entire range of Intel XScale PDA processors to run this thing! These are powerful, low power, run cool and pretty cheap too!

1.  Contrary to your first paragraph, lots of other people have thought of this idea before.  Mini-itx, nano-itx, shuttlepc’s, and several mainstream products exist that already handle this role.
2.  I think you overestimate Apple’s intentions with the Mac Mini.  Obviously it isn’t designed to be a “living room” appliance or multi-media device because it would have gotten frontrow if there was such an intention.  Please, take note that only the iMac got frontrow and it does not.
3.  Why would anyone spend $200-300 on a Mac with no hard drive, just to stream content from a Mac (or Windows PC with itunes)?  Media center Extenders do the exact same thing.  An xbox 360 does even more stuff.  If it played Divx/Xvid it would be perfect.
Apple might as well leave the living room alone because they’ll never beat out the Xbox 360-- from what I hear MS sold about 700,000 in the first 24 hours.  The PS3 is going to bring blu-ray (hopefully) so unless Apple is going to take TiVO’s spot by offering a full on-demand/tv recording function, then they would be wise not to spend developement dollars on a product that will utimately not sell.  Hell, the Mini isn’t even selling well as it is now and it’s relatively unique.
4.  Using an Xscale to power a machine like that is no better than using a freescale processor.

Kuaidang,

I really have to disagree with number 3.  We’re talking about a market basically the size of every household in the US, many of which have more than one TV.  700,000 is a great number for MS after a day or two, but it is a drop in the bucket of the overall market.

Keep in mind that when it’s said and done, the 360 might not even be the biggest console in this generation, let alone have a stranglehold on streaming video.  And as popular as gaming has become, there will still be a huge percentage of people who don’t participate and will compose their TV system another way.  I’d say the same thing for the Media Center.  They make up a small percentage of PC sales now, and I’m sure extenders are much less.  That’s hardly a lock on the market by anyone’s imagination.  Besides, a product like this eliminates the need for a Media Center PC in the first place, since it does what MC was designed to do but in a way that a computer never really will be able to.

And you ask why anyone would want a Mac without a hard drive just to stream video from another Mac, which shows that you are missing the point.  First of all, it wouldn’t be a Mac anymore than an iPod is a Mac.  It would be a separate product designed specifically for it’s function.  It would also be something, in my opinion, that works with regular PCs as well, although Apple might introduce it as a Mac-compatible exclusive at first, like they did with the iPod.  But they are smart enough to know it would have to work with regular PCs as well to have the impact they’d want.  I also disagree that it would necessarily have no hard drive, since plenty of people won’t want to keep all the computers in their house on all the time just to be ready for streaming whenever they’d like.

I think it would be a small, stylish component designed with Apple’s trademark ease of use.  It would have a large HD and support some DVR functions as well as the ability to play video purchased through Apple’s online video store (which hopefully would not be merged with iTunes anymore and would offer a greater number of TV shows as well as movies).  It would store content locally as well as being able to stream from other computers, utilizing Bonjour and WiFi.  It would also be able to play DVDs and probably Blu-ray, as they seem to have the upper hand over HD-DVD these days.

The last part is all conjecture of course, and Apple may release something that looks nothing like what I suggested, or may never release anything along those lines at all.  But it seems to be the direction they’re heading, so I would bet against the latter.  Regardless, you seem to think Microsoft has the future of television all sewn up already, and I think that is far from the truth.  They may eventually wind up on top, or Apple might, or Sony, or someone else.  But we are far from that point in time…

I waited to buy an iBox music + video device last year.  Nothing.  The AirPort Express is the closest we were before Front Row.

Here’s hoping for a new AirPort express w/ Apple Remote, and video port for seeing track names.

Regardless, you seem to think Microsoft has the future of television all sewn up already, and I think that is far from the truth.

That’s not what I said at all.  You are just filtering my posts so that all you see is Microsoft Microsoft Microsoft… I specifically divided the market into Xbox 360’s, PS3’s, and Tivo-like DVR’s.  Together they own (or will own) the living room.  All three devices will bring something unique to the table and the Apple device as described would not. Considering that the Xbox 1 and PS2 have quadrupled iPod sales in the past 5 years (all three devices came out in 2000 or 2001), I think it’s fair to say that Apple’s only chance in the market (against the Xbox 360 and PS3) would be to produce a device that is an even bigger success than the iPod.  I just don’t see Apple doing that with any type of computer.

I really have to disagree with number 3.  We’re talking about a market basically the size of every household in the US, many of which have more than one TV.  700,000 is a great number for MS after a day or two, but it is a drop in the bucket of the overall market.

True but consider that TiVO only has about 3.5 million users totaland the Xbox 360 sold one-fifth of that in it’s first day.  In the next 5 years the Xbox 360 and PS3 will sell over 100 million units… there’s no place for Apple in that market unless they are offering something unique which the product describe above fails to do.

And as popular as gaming has become, there will still be a huge percentage of people who don’t participate and will compose their TV system another way.

And those folks have are covered by TiVO and other DVR’s.

I’d say the same thing for the Media Center.  They make up a small percentage of PC sales now, and I’m sure extenders are much less.  That’s hardly a lock on the market by anyone’s imagination.  Besides, a product like this eliminates the need for a Media Center PC in the first place, since it does what MC was designed to do but in a way that a computer never really will be able to.

Media Center PC’s were over 40% of retail sales in August and September so they are quite popular.  All Vista-Ready machines will be Media Center’s as well so that is about another 450-500 million units in 2006-2008.
Once could make the arguement that a TiVo-like DVR device (especially combined with ON-Demand cable programming)) eliminates the need for a MCE as well.  What does an Apple branded device offer that makes it more compelling than any of those DVR’S?  Nothing, hence why it won’t sell.

I think it would be a small, stylish component designed with Apple’s trademark ease of use.  It would have a large HD and support some DVR functions as well as the ability to play video purchased through Apple’s online video store (which hopefully would not be merged with iTunes anymore and would offer a greater number of TV shows as well as movies).

I highly doubt Apple is looking at adding TV recording capabilites to anything they sell because it would cut into their iTunes video store sales.  Currently, the Xbox 360 offers all the other features.  It’s small, sleek, easy to use and it has numerous services for video and movie sales.  All the standard MCE 2005 services are available so that means you have thousands of shows on Akimbo (BBC, discovery, CNN, MLBtv etc.), CinemaNow, Movielink, and much more.
http://my.akimbo.com/browse_channel.aspx

It would store content locally as well as being able to stream from other computers, utilizing Bonjour and WiFi.  It would also be able to play DVDs and probably Blu-ray, as they seem to have the upper hand over HD-DVD these days.

Again, the Xbox 360 already does all of that with exception to the Blu-ray thing (for obvious reasons).  The PS3 when it comes out will do all of those things as well.  The PS3, because of the blu-ray drive, will be sold at a massive loss even though Sony gets those drives at the lowest possible cost due to it being their technology.  Apple would have to pay a much higher cost.  Considering apple’s typical markup there’s no way that the device could be price competitive with a PS3 or Xbox 360 especially after the console price drops start coming.

Additionally, this type of device would be very uncharacteristic of Apple.  Why?  Because it would include nearly everything, tons of space, and lack the simplicity of an Apple product.

IMO it’s much more likely that they’ll release an Airport Express with video than any kind of tivo-like device.  There won’t be any DVR features, or even a hard drive (maybe a bit of flash memory for caching) and there probably won’t be any component, DVI, or HDMI cables either.  That kind of device could be sold for $150-200 and might be quite useful for people who buy a lot of videos at the iTunes video store but outside of that it won’t be very successful (just like Airport Express). 

Unless the PS3 comes with some features that no one knows about (CableCard, DVR, MCE extender capabilty etc.) then Microsoft will surely dominate the living room (there I said it).  Sure Sony may sell more consoles but in terms of getting videos and other media to the living room it looks like Microsoft has everything sewed up.  Xbox 360 in the living room, TV recording on the PC in the office. $1000 now buys you a full system with dvr capabilites, a huge hard drive, and dual core.  You can schedule TV recordings from the Xbox 360’s interface and even play games or watch movies while shows are being recorded.  TV tuners are cheap these days and media center will soon be every new PC.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see TiVo’s new subscriptions dry up quickly once Microsoft gets the whole senario in place (with Vista and cheap TV tuners).

It’s only rumors thus far, but…

http://www.dtgeeks.com/index.php/mainsite/n ewscomment/rumor_mill_mac_mini_to_morph_into_meg a_media_machine

The way Apple’s been going, I don’t automatically discount any rumors unless they’re way out there.

I’m only going to touch on a couple items…

Media Center PC’s were over 40% of retail sales in August and September so they are quite popular.

Yes, but how many actually use it for anything more than regular computing (email, word processing, etc...)? For all we know, they could be buying stuff simply because so many PCs sold come with Media Center capabilities, not because people actually use them as media center PCs.

That said, I do think the Media Center concept is very cool and has a market, and I wouldn’t mind having one myself.

What does an Apple branded device offer that makes it more compelling than any of those DVR’S?  Nothing, hence why it won’t sell.

What made the iPod any more compelling than other MP3 players?

That’s not what I said at all.  You are just filtering my posts so that all you see is Microsoft Microsoft Microsoft…

It certainly wasn’t my intention to misrepresent what you were saying, that’s just the impression I got from reading your post.  Given the last paragraph of your response, however, I’m really not sure why you are arguing this point since you agree with what I said in the first place.

True but consider that TiVO only has about 3.5 million users totaland the Xbox 360 sold one-fifth of that in it’s first day.  In the next 5 years the Xbox 360 and PS3 will sell over 100 million units… there’s no place for Apple in that market unless they are offering something unique which the product describe above fails to do.

Ok, then show me the product that does all those things.  DVRs don’t play discs, the consoles aren’t DVRs, none of them offer something akin to a usable online video store.  What I have suggested is different than anything on the market today.  I’m not claiming it’s revolutionary, just that it combines all the pieces into one box, and would be built with Apple’s undeniable panache.

And those folks have are covered by TiVO and other DVR’s.

Which must of course mean there’s no room for anyone else in that market, huh?  I mean, since you just pointed out that there are only 3.5 million TiVo users, I guess that’s the total number of people who will ever want one.  The number of people who even have DVRs today is nothing compared to what it will be a few years from now, and you know it.

Once could make the arguement that a TiVo-like DVR device (especially combined with ON-Demand cable programming)) eliminates the need for a MCE as well.  What does an Apple branded device offer that makes it more compelling than any of those DVR’S?  Nothing, hence why it won’t sell.

I’ve just pointed out that your logic is faulty on it being different, so no need to go there again.  However, what makes the iPod different than other mp3 players?  It’s nothing you can see by looking at a spec sheet.  Yet it has clearly taken off with the market, precisely because of thos intangibles that don’t show up until you see the product and use it.

I highly doubt Apple is looking at adding TV recording capabilites to anything they sell because it would cut into their iTunes video store sales.  Currently, the Xbox 360 offers all the other features.  It’s small, sleek, easy to use and it has numerous services for video and movie sales.  All the standard MCE 2005 services are available so that means you have thousands of shows on Akimbo (BBC, discovery, CNN, MLBtv etc.), CinemaNow, Movielink, and much more.

That rumor says otherwise, but granted it’s just a rumor.  Nonetheless, I think Apple knows it would need such functionality to compete.  The video store would still have a place because not everything you’d ever want to watch is always on TV when you want it.  Maybe some day a long, long time from now, but not anytime soon.  It would offer convenient purchasing or rental of basically every movie or TV show you could want without the hassle of leaving your house.

The idea is the same as the iPod.  You aren’t forced to buy songs from the iTMS to fill it up, it is one supplement to all of the other ways you can add content.  It’s a value-adding feature.  That’s exactly how the DVR and video store would coexist.

And don’t get me started on those other services.  Akimbo in its current form is a joke.  Frankly, so are the movie services, which are so far behind the times, offer nothing you’d want, and have ridiculous usage policies.  Granted, there’s nothing saying all of those things can’t change or that Apple alone is capable of getting it right.  But there was nothing saying that about music, either.

Again, the Xbox 360 already does all of that with exception to the Blu-ray thing (for obvious reasons).  The PS3 when it comes out will do all of those things as well.  The PS3, because of the blu-ray drive, will be sold at a massive loss even though Sony gets those drives at the lowest possible cost due to it being their technology.  Apple would have to pay a much higher cost.  Considering apple’s typical markup there’s no way that the device could be price competitive with a PS3 or Xbox 360 especially after the console price drops start coming.

Again, it’s not true that they already do all those things.  The only way that’s true is when YOU decide that they won’t do half the stuff and then argue based on that.  Faulty logic.  And I suppose you figure Sony’s the only company that will make Blu-ray players, huh?  You know full well that prices will drop rapidly once the technology comes out and hits people’s homes, just like DVD drives did.  No different, unless the format war is still raging at that point, and I find it difficult to believe it will be given the current situation.

Unless the PS3 comes with some features that no one knows about (CableCard, DVR, MCE extender capabilty etc.) then Microsoft will surely dominate the living room (there I said it).  Sure Sony may sell more consoles but in terms of getting videos and other media to the living room it looks like Microsoft has everything sewed up.

There, you knew you wanted to say it.  Feel better now?  As I said, it is WAY too early to declare that ANYONE has this thing sewn up.  It’s all speculation and there are a million variables we don’t know yet.  We have no idea what products will actually come out, from what companies, at what prices.  We don’t know how the consumer public will react to products and technologies, which is frequently not the way anyone predicts.  We don’t know how the media companies will choose to handle their content.  We don’t know any of these things, and yet you are declaring that Microsoft has already won.  Typical…

What made the iPod any more compelling than other MP3 players?

It was the smallest hard drive-based player by a wide margin.
Remember, this was the most popular hard drive player:
http://www.geek.com/hwswrev/conel/nomad/
After that, Apple put it’s marketing muscle behind the iPod and made it a household name.  None of those things would apply to a living room device though.  First, size doesn’t matter nearly as much because the device isn’t portable so as long as it fits in most people’s entertainment centers then it’s okay.  Smaller home entertainment devices (DVD players, consoles etc) don’t sell better than larger ones except in East Asia.
Secondly, “Xbox” and “Playstation” are already household names and the gaming industry/home entertainment industry is relatively mature compared to the portable digital music industry.  I mean, damn, “Tivo” is a verb already.

Ok, then show me the product that does all those things.  DVRs don’t play discs, the consoles aren’t DVRs, none of them offer something akin to a usable online video store.

1.  Here is a review of the Xbox 360’s MCE features including a basic showing of the available movie and video stuff.
http://packetswitched.blogspot.com/2005/11/ review-xbox-360-media-centric-features.html
Go back and look at that link to Akimbo that I posted. Most of the video content on MCE 2005/X360 is free (including music videos) so the video offering are far superior to what Apple currently has.
2.  30% of MCE’s sold at retail have TV tuners. If you have one then your Xbox 360 will interface with it as if it was built into the machine.  You can schedule program recordings, watch and pause live TV etc.
3.
http://reviews.cnet.com/4521-6531_7-5021437 -4.html?tag=coco
There are dozens of these all-in-one devices…
4.  The cable compaines are now offering On-Demand programming which is somewhat like a video/movie store.

Which must of course mean there’s no room for anyone else in that market, huh?  I mean, since you just pointed out that there are only 3.5 million TiVo users, I guess that’s the total number of people who will ever want one.  The number of people who even have DVRs today is nothing compared to what it will be a few years from now, and you know it.

Of course but Media Center PC’s with TV tuners are a little less than 15% of all PC sales.  That’s probably about a million DVR’s a month.  Retail sales don’t include any online sales or self-builds so there are probably a lot more coming from Dell, Shuttle, HP, Newegg etc.
Combine that with Tivo sales, DirectTV DVR sales, other DVR sales, and on-demand programing.  Do you really think there’s room for some wiz-bang Apple product that’s going to stand up to all those products?
Even if this Apple product were to appear it wouldn’t have any chance unless it could record encrypted cable programming which means it has to come after CABLECARD is released.  By then, Vista will be on the shelves and the number of MCE PC’s (even the ones with tuners) will skyrocket.

I’ve just pointed out that your logic is faulty on it being different, so no need to go there again.  However, what makes the iPod different than other mp3 players?  It’s nothing you can see by looking at a spec sheet.  Yet it has clearly taken off with the market, precisely because of thos intangibles that don’t show up until you see the product and use it.

No, that’s the Apple’s fan spin on why the iPod is popular.  Not too long ago, before Apple came out with flash players, every Apple fan would always point out how the iPod was smaller than every other HD-based player… it was true and that’s why it sold.  Look at the link to the creative product.  Look at pretty much every iPod commercial and how the product is being sold.  Every commercial and ad is either about building the brand name and image or about size.  That’s it.  Apple isn’t going around touting “easy of use” or anything like that.  My mom and grandma don’t know what an iPod is because of it’s ease of use.

Neither size nor brand recognition is going to help Apple in the living room.  You simply can’t get better brand recognition than “TIVO” or “Xbox” or “Playstation” or “DirectTV”.

Again, it’s not true that they already do all those things.  The only way that’s true is when YOU decide that they won’t do half the stuff and then argue based on that.  Faulty logic.  And I suppose you figure Sony’s the only company that will make Blu-ray players, huh?  You know full well that prices will drop rapidly once the technology comes out and hits people’s homes, just like DVD drives did.  No different, unless the format war is still raging at that point, and I find it difficult to believe it will be given the current situation.

No, your logic is faulty.  I didn’t say Sony would be the only company to make Blu-ray players but it has been very clear for sometime that they will ship it first in the PS3.  DVD was slightly different because DVD players were out long before the PS2 showed up.  But you know what the most popular DVD player in the world is?  The PS2… 90+ million sold.
No one will offer Blu-ray DVD playback and discs before the PS3 and no one will be able to undercut Sony on price this time because Sony IS bluray.  And prices will take years to drop down to the price where anyone else can really offer a blu-ray drive for dirt cheap.

Secondly, The Xbox 360 + a Media Center PC does EVERYTHING you mentioned outside of the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray thing because it’s simply not possible right now.  It does DVR in both standard res and HD, multiple recordings at the same time, it does movie and video downloads, music downloads, gaming, game downloads, DVD burning, etc.
When Vista shows up you’ll be able to add Blu-ray and HD-DVD, CABLECARD, managed copy, and more.  Not to mention that some of this stuff will reach 200+ million users in the first year.

That rumor says otherwise, but granted it’s just a rumor.  Nonetheless, I think Apple knows it would need such functionality to compete.  The video store would still have a place because not everything you’d ever want to watch is always on TV when you want it.

That’s what the DVR is for and, except for TIVO, it’s free. 

Maybe some day a long, long time from now, but not anytime soon.  It would offer convenient purchasing or rental of basically every movie or TV show you could want without the hassle of leaving your house.

Have you seen On-Demand?  Right now it’s basically only premium channels (as far as movies go) but you can watch nearly anything currently running.  You can watch episodes of “Rome” or “Carnival” or Bill Maher’s show from months ago.  Soon every major network station will be included.

The idea is the same as the iPod.  You aren’t forced to buy songs from the iTMS to fill it up, it is one supplement to all of the other ways you can add content.  It’s a value-adding feature.  That’s exactly how the DVR and video store would coexist.

The difference is that the content that you’re putting on your iPod isn’t easily recorded and freely broadcast to your iPod (the consumption device) TV shows, movies, sporting events, are free to record and are broadcast in much higher quality than you can get from the iTunes video store.  The itunes music store also offers buying one song at a time, which you can’t really do with CD’s.  Movies don’t have that problem.  TV shows do but again they are broadcast for free and any DVR can record them.  The two situations are not the same.

There, you knew you wanted to say it.  Feel better now?  As I said, it is WAY too early to declare that ANYONE has this thing sewn up.  It’s all speculation and there are a million variables we don’t know yet.  We have no idea what products will actually come out, from what companies, at what prices.  We don’t know how the consumer public will react to products and technologies, which is frequently not the way anyone predicts.  We don’t know how the media companies will choose to handle their content.  We don’t know any of these things, and yet you are declaring that Microsoft has already won.  Typical…

Whatever… Feel free to show me which company is going to match or exceed Microsoft’s amount of sales.  By this time next year there will be probably over 100 million MCE’s (including Vista PC’s), 15% or more of them will probably have TV tuners, and Xbox 360’s will probably be closing in on 10 million units sold.  From that point on, every Xbox 360 hooked into a Vista PC should be added to the total.

The only other device that can come close is the PS3 and that’s assuming it has some kind of movie/video download sevice at all… which isn’t at all a given because it won’t even have a hard drive.  Even if it does ship with a hard drive and a video service or media sharing platform… the PS2 sold 90 million units in 5 years… the PS3 probably won’t do that.  Vista PC’s will ship 225+ million per year.

The only reason Apple even comes in to the discussion is because people are trying to make it seem like Apple’s overhyped iPod success (I’ll explain why it’s overhyped later) on to every other product they make or could make.  People think they could dominate DVR’s, tablet PC’s, SFF PC’s, gain mass amounts of PC marketshare, everything.

And even the iPod itself only dominates the market when you trim the market down to certian devices.  For years Apple and Apple fans said the iPod was dominant although flash players outsold iPods 3 to 1.  Currently, iPods only make up about 30% of portable music devices but people said the iPod still dominated because they exclude cell phones, pda’s, video players, etc.
Now that Apple is finally selling more than just straight hard drive based mp3 players you can see that the market is much larger than Apple and Apple fans painted it to be.  But somehow, Apple fans still think Apple can ponder than “domination” on to other products (which they clearly don’t even sell).  that’s typical…

But feel free to show me something that is going to beat the number of media center pc’s and Xbox 360’s Microsoft will sell in the next few years.

What’s really interesting is that arstechnica mirrors nearly everything I said in their new article.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/200511 29-5643.html

First off, I just want to say that re-reading my previous post, I see that I was a bit more sarcastic at a few points than I really intended to be.  My apologies.  Anyway, on to the content…

It was the smallest hard drive-based player by a wide margin.

But that isn’t the only reason.  It’s interface, the scroll (and later click) wheel, and the ease with which it connected to iTunes were all major selling points.  Not to mention the raves every version has gotten for their looks.  You may think looks won’t matter in the living room, but I disagree, and I think history bears that out.

Secondly, “Xboxâ€? and “Playstationâ€? are already household names and the gaming industry/home entertainment industry is relatively mature compared to the portable digital music industry.  I mean, damn, “Tivoâ€? is a verb already.

And Apple is a household name as well.  They don’t need to reintroduce themselves as a brand the way they did with the iPod, the work has already been done.  Besides, I’m not and never have argue that MS, Sony, etc. aren’t also in strong positions concerning the living room.  That’s why I said it’s way to early to tell what might happen.

1.  Here is a review of the Xbox 360’s MCE features including a basic showing of the available movie and video stuff.

I’ve read plenty of reviews and am well aware of the 360’s capabilities.  Here’s one from Paul Thurrot, who wasn’t overly impressed with the 360’s implementation of those features.  The little details, those things Apple and TiVo are known for doing well, seem to be missing to me.  Then again, I haven’t used one in person so I’m not passing any judgement on the matter.

Go back and look at that link to Akimbo that I posted. Most of the video content on MCE 2005/X360 is free (including music videos) so the video offering are far superior to what Apple currently has.

I’m also familiar with Akimbo, and as I said it is basically a joke at this point.  Every review I’ve seen has talked about how it’s a good idea with awful implementation.  Too confusing, too little content, too pricey, too restrictive, differing DRM schemes and additional costs for every program.  Unless it has had a drastic overhaul in the last month or two, which I highly doubt.  No doubt they have more content than Apple right now, but that was part of my prediction: that Apple would put together a much more complete service.  I’m not basing this on them still having 4 shows in a tiny format.  No reason Akimbo couldn’t get their act together by then as well, but my point is that they are a non-issue at this point to anyone considering entering the market.  They have as much work to do as anyone.

2.  30% of MCE’s sold at retail have TV tuners. If you have one then your Xbox 360 will interface with it as if it was built into the machine.  You can schedule program recordings, watch and pause live TV etc.

Not really the same thing, but fair enough.  It’s a different strategy that accomplishes a similar goal.  As I’ve said, I could see Apple going that route as well.  Nonetheless, that’s hardly an insurmountable percentage of the overall available market.  Still doesn’t work seamlessly with an iPod, however, no Mac support I’m aware of, no support for iTMS songs or video.  Not all of that is Microsoft’s fault, but they are still true and therefore my statement stands.

There are dozens of these all-in-one devices…

I’m not talking about DVD burners, clearly, even those with DVR hardware.  Show me how these network with my computer to show me all my songs, videos, photos, etc.  Show me how they allow me to purchase or rent videos.  They aren’t the same thing at all, which I am sure you’re aware of.  Why post that?

4.  The cable compaines are now offering On-Demand programming which is somewhat like a video/movie store.

Except with a teeny tiny fraction of the content I’m talking about, and no easy way to share it around all my computers and devices.  Again, I’m not saying on-demand couldn’t suddenly become much more full-featured and make DVRs and video stores useless, but we just don’t know what will happen.  There are lots of issues with licensing the content, providing adequate technology and infrastructure, getting consumer support- the same issues facing everything else.  That’s why I keep saying that you can’t call the race already when there are this many variables.

Do you really think there’s room for some wiz-bang Apple product that’s going to stand up to all those products?
Even if this Apple product were to appear it wouldn’t have any chance unless it could record encrypted cable programming which means it has to come after CABLECARD is released.  By then, Vista will be on the shelves and the number of MCE PC’s (even the ones with tuners) will skyrocket.

Yes, I do.  And not just Apple, anyone who comes along with a great product will have a chance.  The market is still relatively young, and everyone is finding their way at the same time here.  It may come down to luck, frankly.  Who knows?  As for CC, Apple would be in the same boat as everyone else, and CC2 is supposed to be out in a few months, I believe.  Right now only the cable and satellite companies have an advantage over everyone else, and in a little while they’ll be back to even.  And MCE will skyrocket because MS is building it in, not necessarily because people will be choosing or actually using those features.  You know as well as I do that I ton of people who buy Vista are going to ignore the MCE functions entirely, especially if there are other good alternatives.

No one will offer Blu-ray DVD playback and discs before the PS3 and no one will be able to undercut Sony on price this time because Sony IS bluray.

Perhaps I should be more clear.  I’m not saying that the Apple device has to ship in its first incarnation with a BR drive.  But the difference is that it will be very easy for Apple to update and upgrade the device as these things become reasonable.  The 360 will be very difficult to do this with because it is not something that really happens with consoles for obvious reasons.  The 360 will likely remain as it is right now until it is replaced by the next-gen MS console.  That is a disadvantage for it compared to everyone else.  There aren’t any BR movies out to buy right now anyway, so there’s no advantage for Apple to offer it if they were to introduce this device in the near future.  But by the time there are, it will still be a ways off for the next Xbox, in my opinion.

Secondly, The Xbox 360 + a Media Center PC does EVERYTHING you mentioned outside of the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray thing because it’s simply not possible right now.  It does DVR in both standard res and HD, multiple recordings at the same time, it does movie and video downloads, music downloads, gaming, game downloads, DVD burning, etc.

Except work (completely) with iPods and Apple’s media stores.  You may not think that’s a big thing, but it could well turn out to be.

That’s what the DVR is for and, except for TIVO, it’s free.

First of all, none of them are free since they all charge monthly subscription fees just to get your box to do anything.  The cable companies have to in order to make money off of it and TiVo has to in order to survive.  Apple could be in a position to not have to do that, since they would benefit enough from the product without it.

Secondly, DVRs can only record what’s on when it’s on.  As many channels as that is, it’s still tiny compared to the amount of movies and TV shows that have been produced over history, and it’s only what’s on in your country and in some cases city.  A video store that offered a huge selection of movies and TV shows any time you want would be in a completely different league.

Have you seen On-Demand?  Right now it’s basically only premium channels (as far as movies go) but you can watch nearly anything currently running.  You can watch episodes of “Romeâ€? or “Carnivalâ€? or Bill Maher’s show from months ago.

See the section about DVRs above.  We are a looooong way off from everything on-demand.  Some day perhaps, but not in the next decade.

Soon every major network station will be included.

I highly doubt it, since there is no gain for them and a million negatives.  The on-demand content available now is premium stuff that you already have to pay for.  All your doing is getting to pick when you want to watch rather than following a schedule.  But networks rely on advertising, and advertising fees are based quite a bit on when a show airs.  This sort of system would throw that into disarray, and nobody is willing to deal with that yet.  Video stores at least provide another way to pay for the content, so that is slightly more acceptable to the networks.  Not to mention that offering every movie and TV show ever made is completely beyond the capabilities of on-demand cable right now, but would be relatively easy with an on-line store.

The other problem for the major networks is the local affiliates, who still wield a very large amount of power.  You know why Fox doesn’t have any 10PM shows now that they are mature and flush with programming that would be perfect for that time slot?  The affiliates have their news programs then and they ain’t giving in to Fox because that slot is lucrative to them.  I’m sure the networks would love to change the system, but it’s decades too late for that now.  The affiliates are too important and have too many legal rights.

The difference is that the content that you’re putting on your iPod isn’t easily recorded and freely broadcast to your iPod (the consumption device) TV shows, movies, sporting events, are free to record and are broadcast in much higher quality than you can get from the iTunes video store.  The itunes music store also offers buying one song at a time, which you can’t really do with CD’s.  Movies don’t have that problem.  TV shows do but again they are broadcast for free and any DVR can record them.  The two situations are not the same.

And again, the only stuff available for free is a small percentage of what would be available at a media store.  That’s why there is a place for both, at least until on-demand is much, much more mature than it is right now.

Feel free to show me which company is going to match or exceed Microsoft’s amount of sales.

I’d love to, if I had a crystal ball.  Of course, I’d also be a lot richer, but that’s beside the point.  What I’ve been saying all along is that there are still a million things that could happen.  You seem to feel that isn’t the case, that you can already predict nobody will be able to compete with Microsoft and they will win.  But I’m guessing if you were that prescient you’d be a lot richer too, so we’ll just have to wait and see what happens.

What’s really interesting is that arstechnica mirrors nearly everything I said in their new article.

Ah yes, the same Ars that predicted Apple would never go Intel or release a video enabled iPod.  I love Ars, but they are no more psychic than the rest of us.

But the WiFi idea is even better. Stick in an Airport Extreme card and have the content streamed from your Macs to your TV. And Apple is in a great position to do this with all of it’s computers, bar the PowerMacs and the low end Mac Mini, having built in Airport Extreme.

Heh, Apple TV. You totally called it, Pilky.