journal: think
Thoughts on Open Source
I’ve been having a rather interesting discussion with someone going by the name of Penguin Pete. He wrote a rather interesting blog post last month talking about how Ubuntu is making ground because it is similar to Windows and that makes it appealing to people who are leaving Windows. This does make sense, I certainly think that Ubuntu is one of the most promising Linux distros. Pete then makes a rather true comment about how users leaving Windows are going somewhere and that that somewhere is going to be the next desktop revolution.
Now many Linux users believe that Linux is that somewhere. While I agree that Linux is making quite a lot of ground in the desktop market, and rightly so, I don’t feel that Linux is where the next desktop revolution is currently taking place. As I have previously showed, both Linux and the Mac are gaining market share in the desktop space, at the expense of Windows. In the past 2 years Linux and OS X have almost doubled in market share. The only thing that is putting the Mac ahead is that it had over 10 times the market share of Linux on the desktop 2 years ago, so doubling that is a far bigger gain that doubling Linux’s market share.
Obviously, this makes me believe that the Mac is the next desktop revolution. But why is Linux not making more ground than it is? Well the first obvious reason is one that many Linux users know about. Next to nobody ships a desktop with Linux on. Dell has announced they are going to start shipping Linux on their desktops, which is a huge boost for Linux. That alone could be worth half a percentage of market share. Now that may sound small, but as it stands, just offering Linux is not going to be enough.
One reason Apple is gaining market share is because it now has a very compelling product. With Ubuntu there is now a compelling Linux distro for the every day user. Another major reason Apple is gaining market share is that it has a huge mind share. Apple is one of the most recognisable brands in the world today. It spends millions of dollars a year on advertising and produces some of the most memorable advertising campaigns around. Linux has nothing like this. If you were to tell someone about a Mac then they’d know Apple at least from iTunes or the iPod. If you were to tell someone about Linux you aren’t sure if you’ll get a good conversation or a blank stare. Now that there is the compelling product there, it needs to be advertised. It would be great to see adverts for Ubuntu on TV. Just to get the word out to everyone that there is another choice out there if you don’t want Windows other than the Mac.
Now comes the reason for Apple’s success that ended up setting Penguin Pete and I at odds: Commercial Software. I believe that Linux cannot gain serious amounts of market share until it embraces closed source (whether partly or completely closed source) commercial software. Now odds are that Microsoft Office is never going to make it to Linux until Linux already has a serious amount of market share (I’m talking 5%+). However, other big software vendors have little to lose by also releasing their software for Linux. Adobe for instance, has no serious ties to either Windows or the Mac that would be damaged by a Linux version of any of their apps. Now you can tell me the merits of packages like GIMP but the fact remains that it is apps like Photoshop that rule the roost. You are going to have a far easier time embracing them than competing with them.
The other reason I believe embracing closed source commercial software would be a good thing is that it would allow indie developers to spring up on Linux. Now in a way there are indie developers and small teams on Linux developing software. The problem is that many of the apps put out by these are side projects to their day jobs. They just can’t make any money from it. Open source does not encourage small teams. Look at any open source software company out there and you’ll see that they all have 100s of employees. Look at the majority of the software companies on the Mac and they have between 1 and 25 employees.
Now you may think that this is irrelevant. Pete seemed to take this point as me not liking open source as it will endanger my job. As a Mac developer I’m pretty sure that open source will help my job, not endanger it in anyway. Hell, this week I hope to have the source for some shared components in my apps online. Why would I be open sourcing some of my code if it would damage me? By being able to make money from these apps, developers can make it into a full time job and in turn dedicate their time to their applications. This will allow the countless small projects out there on Linux to instantly become compelling products to entice users (and in turn more developers) to the platform. One of the reasons the Mac survives is that it has a huge collection of high quality software at cheap prices that in some cases can rival the big boys on other platforms e.g. OmniGraffle on the Mac vs Visio on the PC.
Now before I get ripped apart let me make one thing clear. I’m not saying give up on open source and just have closed source. I’m saying have closed source and open source together. The reason the Mac is so strong is that Apple has combined open source and closed source well. The kernel of OS X is open source, Safari’s rendering engine is open source, with Leopard the Calendar Server will be open source. Apple also embraces a lot of open source products: Apache, PHP, Ruby on Rails, etc. However, it also has its closed source software sitting on top of that. Despite what some may think, this really is a good thing.
One strong criticism of several open source projects is that they can become very bloated. One of the greatest things about open source compared to closed source is that if you want a feature in an application you can add it. However, this can become a problem. People have different ideas about what features they want, how they should work, etc. This can lead to major problems with features being added because one or two people want them, increasing the complexity of the application, and this then puts off new users.
Of course these problems can easily be overcome with strong leadership. Look at the most accessible open source applications out there, they all have a central core of people who check everything. They have the vision. Unfortunately with open source this can be hard to maintain. As your project grows you have to increase the central core in order to cope, which in turn dilutes the vision down. While major changes will still be seen, minor changes may pass undetected. One of the hardest parts of software development isn’t where you should add that major new feature or not, it’s minor things such as whether or not you should offer a checkbox for such and such a setting. And it is these minor changes that can slowly lead to bloat.
This is where closed source has a huge advantage; the vision is constant, the core’s growth is more likely to be at the pace the developer wants, not that which the development needs. The idea is to open source those components that don’t get massively effected by this bloat. Take Safari for example. A user doesn’t care if Webkit supports CSS3 or HTML5, all they see of Webkit is the web page being rendered. Safari itself, however, does matter to the user and this is the closed source part. The only people that care a huge amount about Webkit are developers/power users, which is the way it should be as these are also the only people that are able to significantly contribute to Webkit.
That isn’t to say that open source can’t rival a piece of closed source in terms of not falling into the bloat trap if it needs to. Using the Mac for another example, let’s look at Firefox. Firefox is a very good browser, fast, powerful and flexible. It also has a terrible UI on the Mac (to be fair though this is more a case of it being cross platform than being open source). Mac users demanded high quality UIs, and so Camino was born. It can do far less than Firefox but it is a far better competitor to Safari than Firefox as far as a user is concerned.
And to finish off, I’ll point out Firefox as being the shining example of open source. Firefox has completely torn down IE and made huge gains. One of the reasons for this is the HUGE amount of press coverage it has received. Linux just hasn’t had this exposure, and I believe that this is one of the keys to Linux gaining share on the desktop.
Editors note: Pilky originally published this on his personal blog on April 16th. We have republished it here with his permission. We have edited it to a minimal degree for formatting and minor changes like capitalization and punctuation.
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thinkback
I guess I’m just not seeing this “desktop revolution” you guys are talking about. I think the Linux and Mac fans vastly overrate the importance of their favored product. Remember, Apple used to have a far larger share of the market. I don’t think it made much of a difference. Even if Apple were to have some miracle that puts them back at pre-Windows 3.1 marketshare levels (i.e. 10%+) it wouldn’t be a “revolution”.
I know all the Apple fanboi’s are going rabid because Apple had one or two years of record Mac sales but they fail to realize that setting such records is actually normal. Nearly every major PC maker has done it more than a half dozen times in the last decade.
Apple isn’t even the fastest growing PC maker (in terms of PC sales). IIRC they’re 3rd or 4th behind Acer, Lenovo, and probabily HP.
Baring a nuclear attack on Redmond (or Apple open licensing OS X), nothing is going to do any major damage to Windows desktop marketshare in developed countries. Apple gaining back a tiny portion of the marketshare they lost by being stupid is not a revolution.
Even if Apple were to have some miracle that puts them back at pre-Windows 3.1 marketshare levels (i.e. 10%+) it wouldn’t be a “revolution�.
I noticed you specified 3.1 and not 3.
The Mac’s market share was:
http://www.pegasus3d.com/total_share.html
11.2% in 1991
12% in 1992
10% in 1993
I know all the Apple fanboi’s are going rabid because Apple had one or two years of record Mac sales but they fail to realize that setting such records is actually normal. Nearly every major PC maker has done it more than a half dozen times in the last decade.
That really has no bearing on today, which is the PC industry as a whole is seeing less than 9% growth while Apple saw around 30%.
Telling us that many PC makers had record growth during the dot come era is meaningless to this discussion.
Apple isn’t even the fastest growing PC maker (in terms of PC sales). IIRC they’re 3rd or 4th behind Acer, Lenovo, and probabily HP.
Wrong.
Unit growth 1Q ‘07 (world):
Acer 46.1%
Apple 30%
HP 28.7%
Lenovo 16.1%
Toshiba 15.3%
Dell -7.8%
If you add up all the PCs sold that quarter the industry saw 8.9% growth, so Apple is definitely selling more than the rest of the industry.
Dot com, not dot come.
Telling us that many PC makers had record growth during the dot come era is meaningless to this discussion.
Do you even understand what the discussion is about? I don’t think you do. Clearly, if most major PC makers have been growing rapidly and surpassing sales marks almost every year for the past decade then it’s not a “desktop revolution” because Apple starts doing it as well.
Wrong.
Unit growth 1Q ‘07 (world):
Acer 46.1%
Apple 30%
HP 28.7%
Lenovo 16.1%
Toshiba 15.3%
Dell -7.8%
Nice job fudging the stats but that Apple growth number is their growth in the US not Worldwide. We won’t know Apple’s worldwide growth until Wednesday.
In any case, I was refering to growth since early 2005, when Mac Marketshare started this consistient climb upwards, not just for the most recent quarter. As far as I can tell the stats you posted didn’t come out until after I posted my comment as well.
Do you even understand what the discussion is about? I don’t think you do. Clearly, if most major PC makers have been growing rapidly and surpassing sales marks almost every year for the past decade then it’s not a “desktop revolution� because Apple starts doing it as well
Yes, I understood it. Did you even read it?
. In the past 2 years Linux and OS X have almost doubled in market share. The only thing that is putting the Mac ahead is that it had over 10 times the market share of Linux on the desktop 2 years ago, so doubling that is a far bigger gain that doubling Linux’s market share.
Obviously, this makes me believe that the Mac is the next desktop revolution.
Now, what revolution is he talking about?
PC growth hasn’t been breaking records the last two years, has it?
Obviously the only vendors selling PCs to a China that is seeing ~10% GDP are going to do well. But how does that relate to the desktop revolution he’s talking about?
Nice job fudging the stats but that Apple growth number is their growth in the US not Worldwide. We won’t know Apple’s worldwide growth until Wednesday.
My mistake. My guess is we will see at least 30% (or around) for the world because Apple saw bigger increases in Europe than they did in the Americas in their operating segments section of their Q1’07 PDF.
Of course, Apple doesn’t even sell in China, do they? It’s not even a segment listed in their financial results. So if the discussion is the trend of movement away from Windows PCs to Mac, then markets that don’t even offer Macs are irrelevant.
Look at the markets that offer Windows PCs, Linux PCs and Macs if you want to discuss relevant markets.
CUPERTINO, California—April 25, 2007—Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2007 second quarter ended March 31, 2007. The Company posted revenue of $5.26 billion and net quarterly profit of $770 million, or $.87 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $4.36 billion and net quarterly profit of $410 million, or $.47 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 35.1 percent, up from 29.8 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 43 percent of the quarter’s revenue.
Apple shipped 1,517,000 Macintosh® computers and 10,549,000 iPods during the quarter, representing 36 percent growth in Macs and 24 percent growth in iPods over the year-ago quarter.
“The Mac is clearly gaining market share, with sales growing 36 percent—more than three times the industry growth rate,� said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “We’re very excited about the upcoming launch of iPhone in late June, and are also hard at work on some other amazing new products in our pipeline.�
“We are very pleased to report the most profitable March quarter in Apple’s history,� said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO. “Looking ahead to the third fiscal quarter of 2007, we expect revenue of about $5.1 billion and earnings per diluted share of about $.66.�
Now, what revolution is he talking about?
I was also addressing the “desktop revolution” statement made by Kumaran Vijayan in which he talked about the “lion’s share” of the market.
PC growth hasn’t been breaking records the last two years, has it?
No not in growth but in my post, which you quoted, I clearly said “sales”. Either way, the crux of my arguement is that Apple couold gain back all the marketshare they lost during the dot.com boom and the Windows influx and it still wouldn’t be a “revolution”.
Yes, several major PC makers have broken records for growth in the past few years. Acer, Lenovo, e-Machines, and Compaq/HP. If I recall correctly, in the past two years/nine quarters Apple has only been the company with the highest growth twice. Overall in those two years they have not had the fastest growing PC sales. This is all off the top of my head but I believe Acer is the fastest growing PC company in the that time period.
As you noted, part of that is Chinese sales but a part of that is the increased retail presence in the US. You can’t walk into a Circuit City, Offie Depot, Best Buy, or CompUSA and not see an army of Acer notebooks.
The desktop revolution that Pilky is talking about (correct me if I’m wrong, Pilky) is a Mac revolution.
I think your point is if the Mac goes back to 10-12% market share, that’s not a revolution because they were already at that market share 15 years ago. I disagree with your interpretation of the word “revolution”. My definition of revolution includes the phrase “dramatic change”.
Again, Acer’s sales in China don’t really relate to the buying habits of consumers in a market that offers Mac, Linux and Windows PCs. His point, I think, was that in areas where consumers are given a choice of Linux, Windows and Macs, there is a big surge in Mac sales. When discussing this topic, you don’t want to include China because Apple doesn’t even sell Macs in China.
Acer’s sales in the USA are minimal:
Gartner USA Q1 ‘07
Dell 33.9%
HP 21%
Gateway 8.5%
Toshiba 4.4%
Apple 4%
Others 28.2%
Others only grew 3.1%. Acer is in “Others” with Sony and everyone else and they only grew 3.1% in the USA. Now, maybe Acer still had 50% growth in that by selling a very small number and then adding to that. It’s easy to double your growth when you sell two this year after selling one last year.
But, again, look at the entire PC industry versus just Macs in regards to growth. Apple’s growth is 36%. The entire PC industry, in the USA, is seeing around 9%.
Acer’s numbers are included in the numbers for the entire PC industry. So telling me that Acer is seeing strong growth selling PCs from Taiwan to China doesn’t really affect what’s going on with the Mac right now.
My belief is that the Mac won’t get the lion’s share of the market because it is not Windows-like. However, Linux is.
People might go for familiarity. However, I believe that what most people who want to move from Windows want isn’t a free version of Windows, if they did they would just pirate Windows. They want something that works differently.
Again, Acer’s sales in China don’t really relate to the buying habits of consumers in a market that offers Mac, Linux and Windows PCs. His point, I think, was that in areas where consumers are given a choice of Linux, Windows and Macs, there is a big surge in Mac sales. When discussing this topic, you don’t want to include China because Apple doesn’t even sell Macs in China.
Your logic here is extremely faulty. To throw out Worldwide numbers because Apple doesn’t sell in China and Acer does is a radical stretch in logical thinking.
-Apple does sell Macs in China. The first link below is absolute proof of that:
http://www.macinchina.com/
http://www.bestbuy.com.cn
http://www.apple.com.cn/store/
http://www.beimac.com/
-In Apple’s own quarterly report they break out a special section for Asia-Pacific sales which do not include Japan.
http://images.apple.com/pr/pdf/q207data_sum.pdf
-The world market figure measures are far larger than just China as you seem to be suggesting. Looking at Apple’s financial figures, about 60% of Apple’s sales come from the Eastern Hemisphere.
There is no reason to throw out any figures here except to make Apple look better, which seems to be your goal.
But, again, look at the entire PC industry versus just Macs in regards to growth. Apple’s growth is 36%. The entire PC industry, in the USA, is seeing around 9%.
That is a lovely quote, I got a nice chuckle out of it. Have you ever read “How to Lie With Statistics”?
Apple’s 36% growth is WORLDWIDE (the exact stats that you said we should ignore earlier in your post). The PC growth of 9% is just for the USA. Those stats are not directly comparable.
However, I fail to understand why you keep bringing up that Apple is growing faster than the PC market as a whole? Do you have a point to make here? It seems to me you are trying a lame attempt to counter my point that Apple is not the fastest growing PC company. But the facts say that Acer, Lenovo, HP, and Toshiba are also growing faster than the rest of the market. Apple is also NOT growing faster than Acer and HP (probably Lenovo too) in the last couple years.
Your logic here is extremely faulty. To throw out Worldwide numbers because
Apple doesn’t sell in China and Acer does is a radical stretch in logical
thinking.
Oh yeah? Well, you smell. Sigh.
Why do people have to throw insults to get their point across? Seriously, why do you have to be like that?
The logic is not faulty at all. It’s pretty simple. If you are going to examine how well Macs do in a market with Linux and Windows, you have to look at markets that have all three readily available.
Apple does sell Macs in China
I wasn’t sure about that, which is why I said do they? You didn’t answer the question initially, so I took that as agreement that they don’t.
Best Buy sells Macs in China? Do they? I see your link to their home page but I don’t see any Macs. I see a video iPod.
What was your point with the Beijing Mac user group link? They sell Macs?
How many Apple Stores are in China? How much does Apple advertise in China compared with Acer? How many authorized dealers are in China compared with Acer?
Again, when discussing how many people are choosing Macs over Windows PCs, you need to look at markets where all choices have equal footing. Pointing to a single market or a single PC maker’s results doesn’t at all refute or even relate to the discussion.
world market figure measures are far larger than just China as you seem to be suggesting
No, that wasn’t what I was suggesting. I was suggesting that there is a lot of growth in China because their GDP is hovering around 10%. There is a huge amount of economic growth in that country. So any PC company that is in the area and focusing on that country is going to have more growth than a company that does not. And Acer’s growth doesn’t refute Pilky’s point at all about a Mac revolution.
That is a lovely quote, I got a nice chuckle out of it. Have you ever read “How to Lie With Statistics�?
No, I haven’t.
Apple’s 36% growth is WORLDWIDE (the exact stats that you said we should ignore earlier in your post).
OK, so the stats that you want to use show Apple has 36% growth. How does that make them “3rd or 4th”?
The PC growth of 9% is just for the USA. Those stats are not directly comparable.
Sigh. OK, what is the PC industry’s growth last quarter for the entire world? Apple had 36% growth. What is the industry average?
However, I fail to understand why you keep bringing up that Apple is growing faster than the PC market as a whole? Do you have a point to make here?
Yeah, but I think even if I make it again and again and again, you’ll just throw ad hominems back at me or won’t get it, so I won’t waste my time. It had something to do with a Mac revolution.
It seems to me you are trying a lame attempt to counter my point that Apple is not the fastest growing PC company.
Well, I think me posting a list of the fastest growing companies and not putting Apple at the top of the list is a pretty strong clue that I’m not trying to counter your claim that Apple isn’t the fastest growing. What I have been trying to communicate to you is that the discussion isn’t that Apple is the fastest growing computer company in the world, but rather, that Apple’s growth is much higher than Windows PCs as a whole and this is evidence that there is a Mac revolution.
But the facts say that Acer, Lenovo, HP, and Toshiba are also growing faster than the rest of the market. Apple is also NOT growing faster than Acer and HP (probably Lenovo too) in the last couple years.
OK, what was Acer/Lenovo/HP/Toshiba’s unit growth % for the second quarter? Apple’s was 36%.
This article is about a Mac revolution. That means it’s Macs versus all PCs combined. You keep citing individual PC companies that have great growth and that has no bearing on the discussion at all. I keep mentioning this to you and you continue to argue a straw man argument.
Apple’s worldwide unit growth in Q2 2007 was 36%. What was the entire PC industry’s growth for the world in Q2?
Pete then makes a rather true comment about how users leaving Windows are going somewhere and that that somewhere is going to be the next desktop revolution.
Not users, but some users. Just about everyone has been exposed to Windows, some stays some goes, its the facts of life. But you hold fast hope in a revolution that may never happen. It has taken 20 years for Linux to come up with Ubuntu, but is it good enough to replace Windows as the easiest and most accessible operating system in the world? Everything from support to customising the desktop is incredibly difficult. Unless one decides to dedicate his entire life to dissecting Linux, nobody is going to invest that amount of time and effort when there is already a platform out there with everything.
Linux’s only saving grace is that it has a small but still significant community, and a bunch of good internet based applications (thanks to MS lazy IE development).
As I have previously showed, both Linux and the Mac are gaining market share in the desktop space, at the expense of Windows. In the past 2 years Linux and OS X have almost doubled in market share. The only thing that is putting the Mac ahead is that it had over 10 times the market share of Linux on the desktop 2 years ago, so doubling that is a far bigger gain that doubling Linux’s market share.
Obviously, this makes me believe that the Mac is the next desktop revolution.
Wow what an incredible conclusion. Apple’s only hope of ever making any sort of impact is to make Windows boot on their computers, port Linux applications onto OSX or buy Linux altogether (of course most Linux users would rather die than to be sucked into Apple’s monopoly).
Linux is a non player because it has no marketing and no guarantees. Comparing Linux with OSX is like comparing a high school basketball star with a veteran NBA player, one is full of potentials but is immature and shaky, the other has the available skills and can get right to work but is limited and gets old quickly. Neither is going to win a championship any time soon. Linux is still in its infantry while OSX is largely limited to Apple (a blessing or a curse depending on how you look at it).
Until either one of them can manage media, productivity, entertainment, external devices and ease of use all on the one desktop, neither platform will be anywhere near as becoming the next desktop revolution.
Oh yeah? Well, you smell. Sigh.
Why do people have to throw insults to get their point across? Seriously, why do you have to be like that?
I don’t think he was in the least trying to insult anyone, as usual you read it wrong. Apple has very little impact in Asia because many people do not want to be tied to a monopoly (same with Europe).
Of course, Apple doesn’t even sell in China, do they?
I wasn’t sure about that, which is why I said do they?
You stated that “Apple does not sell in China”, and you reinforced the point no less than 3 times. You have no idea what you’re saying.
Not users, but some users. Just about everyone has been exposed to Windows, some stays some goes, its the facts of life. But you hold fast hope in a revolution that may never happen. It has taken 20 years for Linux to come up with Ubuntu, but is it good enough to replace Windows as the easiest and most accessible operating system in the world? Everything from support to customising the desktop is incredibly difficult.
I believe that is an incredibly one sided statement. Whether Windows is the easiest OS in the world is entirely debatable, there are good arguments for Windows, Linux and OS X, I personally believe OS X is easier to use. However, in terms of accessibility, I guess it would depends on what you meant. Accessibility to change things to how you want, Linux is always going to win. Accessibility to those with disabilities, then it’s between OS X and Windows, with OS X winning IMO due to it having more out of the box.
As for support and customising the desktop: yes, in the past these have been difficult, yet you mention ubuntu in your post which changes these.
Unless one decides to dedicate his entire life to dissecting Linux, nobody is going to invest that amount of time and effort when there is already a platform out there with everything.
The thing is, the average user needs to dissect Linux no more than they need to dissect OS X or Windows
Wow what an incredible conclusion. Apple’s only hope of ever making any sort of impact is to make Windows boot on their computers, port Linux applications onto OSX or buy Linux altogether (of course most Linux users would rather die than to be sucked into Apple’s monopoly).
OK, well you obviously don’t understand Linux if you think a company can buy it. As for Windows booting on their computers, I think you may have missed the press release last year about this thing called Boot Camp. Partitions your HD and gives you drivers so you can run Windows on a Mac. And my Linux or Unix applications can be run or recompiled to work on the Mac, however, this will have little impact on Windows users and even less on current Mac users.
Until either one of them can manage media, productivity, entertainment, external devices and ease of use all on the one desktop, neither platform will be anywhere near as becoming the next desktop revolution.
Either you’re being very ignorant or you honestly haven’t even looked at advertising, let alone used the respective platforms. For example, most people would agree that the Mac is the king of media. It is the main machine in the likes of TV, Movies, Music, Publishing etc. Productivity is entirely subjective. Some are more productive on Windows whereas some, like me, find that Windows is counter productive and the Mac is far better in this regards.
Entertainment, well I think we can both agree that Apple has the digital audio market pretty much. The next key entertainment market is the living room yet it is still extremely open. I would say that MS currently has the edge over Apple, as I don’t find the Apple TV that compelling a solution (build in a DVD drive and then things are a lot more interesting). That said neither OS has this one covered. The only clear winner in any part of entertainment is Windows with games (though there are many interesting projects out there which could change this)
I don’t understand what you mean by external devices. I’ve got external speakers, external HD, logitech mouse, microsoft keyboard, HP printer, iPod etc that all plug into my iMac. No real problems with any of them. I don’t think I’ve found any external device that didn’t work on a Mac myself. There are some but they are either incredibly new or are some cheap crappy device by a no-name manufacturer (and who’s Windows drivers would be very suspicious).
Ease of use, as I’ve said is subjective. Many would argue that ease of use is on of the areas that the Mac excels over Windows. It all comes down to what you think ease of use is
So yeah unless you are purposefully choosing to ignore that the Mac can do everything you’d want to do on a computer then I suggest popping down to an Apple Store and trying a Mac for the first time
Apple has very little impact in Asia because many people do not want to be tied to a monopoly (same with Europe).
I’m interested about this Apple monopoly. It would be like saying that Visual Studio is a monopoly because it only runs on Windows. The fact that Apple makes the OS and the hardware does not make it a monopoly. If this is the case then are consoles like the Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii also monopolies? What about the many MP3 players and mobile phones out there. A monopoly is someone who has close to full control of a market. As you often like to point out, Apple has only around 5% of the computer user market. Not exactly a monopoly
I don’t think he was in the least trying to insult anyone, as usual you read it wrong.
That was precious! Well, gee, thanks for not insulting me. LOL
You have no idea what you’re saying.
That doesn’t make sense. How could I not know what I’m saying?
Either you’re being very ignorant or you honestly haven’t even looked at advertising
Don’t feed the troll. The numbers don’t lie. All Windows zealots can do is twist the argument into something else, away from your point and away from the facts.
Not users, but some users.
And they resort to arguing semantics, and even get that wrong.
informer, he said “… how users leaving Windows are going somewhere and that that somewhere is going to be the next desktop revolution.”
All of the users who are leaving Windows are going somewhere, not some of them. Read that sentence again. He’s talking about the users who are leaving Windows. Every single user that leaves Windows goes somewhere, otherwise they wouldn’t be users leaving WIndows. Sheesh.
It really is just a few people who screw these threads up and turn them into arguments about the definition of “is”.
How many Apple Stores are in China? How much does Apple advertise in China compared with Acer? How many authorized dealers are in China compared with Acer?
Funny you didn’t seem to apply those same standards when you went on a tangent about US market share. How much does Acer advertise in the US compared to Apple. How many Authorized dealers are in the US compared with Apple?
See how useless that is? Now that you’re point about Apple not selling Macs in China no longer holds water you have tried to become increasingly creative at coming up with bogus reasons why we should not look at worldwide market share.
No, that wasn’t what I was suggesting. I was suggesting that there is a lot of growth in China because their GDP is hovering around 10%. There is a huge amount of economic growth in that country. So any PC company that is in the area and focusing on that country is going to have more growth than a company that does not.
Whatever. You threw out stats for the entire non-US world based on your point about one country. That’s faulty logic.
And Acer’s growth doesn’t refute Pilky’s point at all about a Mac revolution.
If there are several companies (Acer, HP, Lenovo, Toshiba etc) growing at rates similar to Apple’s rate then obviously there is no more of an Apple revolution than there is of an HP revolution, or Acer revolution.
Well, I think me posting a list of the fastest growing companies and not putting Apple at the top of the list is a pretty strong clue that I’m not trying to counter your claim that Apple isn’t the fastest growing. What I have been trying to communicate to you is that the discussion isn’t that Apple is the fastest growing computer company in the world, but rather, that Apple’s growth is much higher than Windows PCs as a whole and this is evidence that there is a Mac revolution.
In the time defined by this article and the previous one, Apple’s market share has moved from about 2% to about 2.5%. That’s over the span of about two years. HP, Lenovo, and Acer has all gained more marketshare than that over the same time period.
Would you term 0.5% marketshare gain in 2 years a “desktop revolution”? As I pointed out earlier, such gains or loses are normal for major PC manufacturers. For instance, Dell gained far more than that because of the HP/Compaq merger. E-Machines, at one point, gained substantially more marketshare than that by undercutting nearly everyone. Recently, Dell has lost more than 2% marketshare. Apple actually lost around 8%+ marketshare from their peak.
A point I made earlier was that Apple would have to gain about 15 times that amount of marketshare just to get back to where they were in the Windows 3.1 era. So to call a 0.5% gain in marketshare or even a 2% gain in marketshare a “revolution” of any kind is simply an overreach of the most ridiculous kind.
OK, so the stats that you want to use show Apple has 36% growth. How does that make them “3rd or 4th�?
As I stated earlier, the time period for the discussion is not one quarter but two years:
Pilky said: In the past 2 years Linux and OS X have almost doubled in market share. The only thing that is putting the Mac ahead is that it had over 10 times the market share of Linux on the desktop 2 years ago, so doubling that is a far bigger gain that doubling Linux’s market share.
Don’t feed the troll. The numbers don’t lie. All Windows zealots can do is twist the argument into something else, away from your point and away from the facts.
What numbers? The ones that you lied about twice now?
The numbers say that the amount of marketshare Apple has gained in the past two years is not that much. In fact, throughout Apple’s history they have gained or lost that same amount or more(year over year) at least a dozen times.
There were actually some years were Apple took massive jumps, like in 1990 when they went from 5% to over 11% or 1995 when they went from 9% to about 5%. Therefore 0.5% or so in two years is not a “revolution” of any kind.
Funny you didn’t seem to apply those same standards when you went on a tangent about US market share. How much does Acer advertise in the US compared to Apple.
Because this is about Mac versus Windows PCs and not Apple versus Acer.
If there are several companies (Acer, HP, Lenovo, Toshiba etc) growing at rates similar to Apple’s rate then obviously there is no more of an Apple revolution than there is of an HP revolution, or Acer revolution.
No, because this is about Macs versus Windows PCs...all of them. Acer can have 4300% growth and it wouldn’t matter if the entire PC industry has only grown 9-10% at the same time Mac growth is 36%.
This is Macs versus Windows PC.
This is Macs versus Windows PC.
This is Macs versus Windows PC.
This is Macs versus Windows PC.
This is Macs versus Windows PC.
This is Macs versus Windows PC.
This is Macs versus Windows PC.
This is Macs versus Windows PC.
This is Macs versus Windows PC.
This is Macs versus Windows PC.
the time defined by this article and the previous one, Apple’s market share has moved from about 2% to about 2.5%. That’s over the span of about two years. HP, Lenovo, and Acer has all gained more marketshare than that over the same time period.
Which doesn’t relate to the entire PC industry’s growth compared to Macs.
As I stated earlier, the time period for the discussion is not one quarter but two years
And yet you keep bringing up Apple’s history over a much longer period than two years, don’t you?
The numbers say that the amount of marketshare Apple has gained in the past two years is not that much.
Like I said, you change the argument when you can’t argue the numbers. You are now changing this to market share. Nice.
Apple’s history
Doesn’t relate to this discussion.
Right now, you are doing a lot of hand waving.
What is the PC industry’s growth last quarter for the entire world?
Best Buy sells Macs in China? Do they? I see your link to their home page but I don’t see any Macs. I see a video iPod.
What was your point with the Beijing Mac user group link? They sell Macs?
What was Acer/Lenovo/HP/Toshiba’s unit growth % for the second quarter? Apple’s was 36%
You need to do a better job of backing up your claims.
http://www.macworld.com/news/2007/05/08/ macsurfers/index.php
The portion of people surfing the Web using a Mac has doubled in the past eight months, an Internet metrics analyst said Tuesday, and represents an audience that can’t be ignored by Web application developers.
Whether Windows is the easiest OS in the world is entirely debatable
Everyone has an opinion, everything can be debated, my cool looking but hard to maintain blinds can be debated. Installing Windows and getting some regular software on it is as simple as asking your next door neighbour. Somebody is always going to know what to do on Windows.
there are good arguments for Windows, Linux and OS X, I personally believe OS X is easier to use.
Again, everyone has an opinion. OSX comes preinstall with several applications that some might deem useful, but they may not do everything the user requires. It may not be all that easy for an average user to look for alternatives. I don’t know how many times people have asked for alternatives for iTunes, Safari and media players.
Accessibility to change things to how you want, Linux is always going to win.
You’re referring to flexibility to change things, of course Linux was set up for any customisation you can throw at it as long as you’re doing the compiling. I’m talking about being able to use any devices with no trouble whatsoever. I bought a portable media player the other day and I’ve no idea if it works with 98,2000,XP or Vista but I pluged it in and it just works. PDAs, mobile phones, many many devices work. My Sharp PDA, despite running on Linux, syncs with MS Outlook.
Accessibility to those with disabilities, then it’s between OS X and Windows, with OS X winning IMO due to it having more out of the box.
I think the argument for having more out the box is a tired one. We all know why Windows can’t have all the applications that we want on it out of the box but that is a good thing. I prefer trying all kinds of applications (especially free ones). Besides, I’ve never used Windows Movie Maker so having extra applications by default would only make my system cumbersome and bulky.
Besides, if disabled people are using Macs, then good for Apple. They have a market.
As for support and customising the desktop: yes, in the past these have been difficult, yet you mention ubuntu in your post which changes these.
I played around with Vista for some time and while it was nice, my 3 year notebook couldn’t handle Aero consistently. I absolutely love Media Center though. So when I went back to XP, I started playing around with Windowblinds and it has really changed my perspective of how customisable Windows can really be. Seriously, people don’t even have to make it look like a Microsoft product. Doing the same thing on Ubuntu is comparatively much more difficult. Again, not many neighbours would know how to do it in Linux.
The thing is, the average user needs to dissect Linux no more than they need to dissect OS X or Windows
A grossly incorrect assessment. You’ve never actually compiled an OS before have you?
OK, well you obviously don’t understand Linux if you think a company can buy it. As for Windows booting on their computers, I think you may have missed the press release last year about this thing called Boot Camp. Partitions your HD and gives you drivers so you can run Windows on a Mac. And my Linux or Unix applications can be run or recompiled to work on the Mac, however, this will have little impact on Windows users and even less on current Mac users.
Did you even read my post properly? You sound like Simon Cowell saying “you seem to be singing the same old song but you don’t really understand what you’re singing”.
Either you’re being very ignorant or you honestly haven’t even looked at advertising
What advertising? You mean Apple advertising? No sane IT guy is going to fall for any of that crap if they can help it. Let me think of an example…
Time machine???
let alone used the respective platforms. For example, most people would agree that the Mac is the king of media.
Most people agree that Windows is the king of media too. In fact, most people would also agree that Windows is the king of desktop being able to do just about everything on it.
some, like me, find that Windows is counter productive and the Mac is far better in this regards.
I guess the PC/Windows biggest problem is its diversity and ability to run so many things on it. To the average and high level users, this is of course an advantage. To the total newbies, they have no idea where to start. Having the regular stuff right there in their faces is going to make their lives a lot easier.
Entertainment, well I think we can both agree that Apple has the digital audio market pretty much.
Only in America.
The next key entertainment market is the living room yet it is still extremely open.
Xbox? Media Center players? Media Center is excellent, transforming average computers into entertainment machines. That is innovative and much appreciated among PC/media enthusiasts.
I would say that MS currently has the edge over Apple, as I don’t find the Apple TV that compelling a solution.
If you knew anything about the technical aspects of media players and AppleTV, then you would probably realise how futile the AppleTV really is.
That said neither OS has this one covered. The only clear winner in any part of entertainment is Windows with games
Um, again not quite right.
Windows doesn’t just kill OSX for gaming, it annihilates it. Not only that, people have been using their PCs for movies watching TV for a very very very long time.
After all these years, you have never seen what people can really do with Windows.
I’m interested about this Apple monopoly.
Look up a dictionary on what monopoly mean. Your ignorance levels that of a child.
The fact that Apple makes the OS and the hardware does not make it a monopoly.
Then why don’t Apple allow OSX to run on other computers? Why don’t iPods play WMA files? My new player plays FLAC.
And why is Quicktime trying to install itself into my computer?? URGH!!
A monopoly is someone who has close to full control of a market.
Depending on who’s holding pole position and why it is there. If its operating systems, then of course it would be Microsoft but they don’t try to monopolise the market with the kind of marketing that Apple does. Windows allows more 3rd party software than any other OS. It is far from trying to force people to use IE, Media player or movie maker. Windows is popular because it doesn’t tie you to Microsoft products and because you can run just able anything on it.
Compare this to the inferiorPods which has the mp3 player market (in America only). Apple’s only real strategy is to use marketing to monopolise the digital audio market. That’s it. The iPods are not even close to being the best media players.
They’re up there because Apple says so, and because people like yourself say so.
And BTW, Apple has a 5% in the market because it sucks as a computer company (except for those disabled users of course).
Whoever said that people only use PCs for Windows must have been stuck under a rock for years. I’ve enjoyed using the same computer for Linux and Windows for several years way before Apple even thought of migrating to Linux and Intel!!! I’ve also enjoyed watching movies in my living room using my computer for years (thank you ATI), and I’ve also enjoyed listening to MP3s on my computer (sharing over the network even) and handheld PCs/PDAs before media players came out in their droves. Apple woke up years later to get on the bandwagon and it seems like their users did too.
Everyone has an opinion, everything can be debated, my cool looking but hard to maintain blinds can be debated. Installing Windows and getting some regular software on it is as simple as asking your next door neighbour. Somebody is always going to know what to do on Windows.
Installing OS X and getting some regular software on it is as simple as doing it yourself. Whether or not you can ask your neighbour for help is entirely irrelevant to whether an OS is easy to use.
Again, everyone has an opinion. OSX comes preinstall with several applications that some might deem useful, but they may not do everything the user requires. It may not be all that easy for an average user to look for alternatives. I don’t know how many times people have asked for alternatives for iTunes, Safari and media players.
The people who look for alternatives are the people who are capable enough to look for alternatives. A quick google search could find you what you need.
You’re referring to flexibility to change things, of course Linux was set up for any customisation you can throw at it as long as you’re doing the compiling. I’m talking about being able to use any devices with no trouble whatsoever. I bought a portable media player the other day and I’ve no idea if it works with 98,2000,XP or Vista but I pluged it in and it just works. PDAs, mobile phones, many many devices work. My Sharp PDA, despite running on Linux, syncs with MS Outlook.
That is compatibility, not accessibility.
I think the argument for having more out the box is a tired one. We all know why Windows can’t have all the applications that we want on it out of the box but that is a good thing. I prefer trying all kinds of applications (especially free ones). Besides, I’ve never used Windows Movie Maker so having extra applications by default would only make my system cumbersome and bulky.
Besides, if disabled people are using Macs, then good for Apple. They have a market.
Universal Accessibility isn’t a case of trying stuff out. It’s a case of all this support being built into the system from the get go because that’s how both developer and users need it. People with disabilities don’t want to shop around for software to help them (that would cost 100s of dollars). Can you imagine if you got a new computer but found out you couldn’t use it properly until you’d bought some extra software.
I played around with Vista for some time and while it was nice, my 3 year notebook couldn’t handle Aero consistently. I absolutely love Media Center though. So when I went back to XP, I started playing around with Windowblinds and it has really changed my perspective of how customisable Windows can really be. Seriously, people don’t even have to make it look like a Microsoft product. Doing the same thing on Ubuntu is comparatively much more difficult. Again, not many neighbours would know how to do it in Linux.
The question here then, is how many people who want to do stuff like that go and ask their neighbour? I’d be willing to bet its very few people. People who want to do something like that either have some idea or they are capable enough to search the web for a solution.
A grossly incorrect assessment. You’ve never actually compiled an OS before have you?
No, I have never compiled an OS before. How is this relevant to the point though? Do I have to compile Linux to use it? No. Will an average user need to compile Linux to use it? No. Does the average user need to compile Linux any more than they need to compile OS X or Window? No.
Did you even read my post properly? You sound like Simon Cowell saying “you seem to be singing the same old song but you don’t really understand what you’re singingâ€?.Â
Yes I did read your post properly. You suggested 3 things that would make Apple make an impact:
• Make windows boot on their computers - This is what Boot Camp allows
• Port Linux applications onto OS X - Many Linux (and other *nix) apps are available on OS X.
• Buy Linux altogether - How do you buy Linux altogether? You can’t.
What advertising? You mean Apple advertising? No sane IT guy is going to fall for any of that crap if they can help it. Let me think of an example…
Time machine???Â
Try quoting full sentences instead of bits that allow you to make points by taking them out of context. I’m saying that you show very little knowledge of the OSs you are arguing against, so little that I doubt you have even looked at advertising, which would have given you at least some knowledge of a platform. I agree that advertising isn’t enough to base an opinion of a platform on but it can give you some idea about that platform.
Also, what is this about Time Machine?
Most people agree that Windows is the king of media too. In fact, most people would also agree that Windows is the king of desktop being able to do just about everything on it.
I wouldn’t say that most people would agree that Windows is the king of media. When you think of which computer is best for video editing, audio editing, graphic design etc the majority of people instantly think of the Mac. Remember that the media market has historically been one of the strongest markets for the Mac. I doubt there is a single major film out today that hasn’t had a Mac used for at least some part of it’s production
I guess the PC/Windows biggest problem is its diversity and ability to run so many things on it. To the average and high level users, this is of course an advantage. To the total newbies, they have no idea where to start. Having the regular stuff right there in their faces is going to make their lives a lot easier.
Yes, diversity and the ability to run many things are advantages, but those do not really affect productivity. The Mac allows for lots of diversity and the ability to run a lot of things, yet people still find it more productive. Some find Windows more productive. It all comes down to the design of the OS. The file system, the interface etc. Some people are better suited to Windows, some are better suited to OS X.
Only in America.
They have most of the market in the US, they have 50% or higher market share in many other countries (and are the top selling music player in many others) and iTunes is the top music download site throughout much of Europe as well as the US.
Xbox? Media Center players? Media Center is excellent, transforming average computers into entertainment machines. That is innovative and much appreciated among PC/media enthusiasts.
Yes, they’re good, but they haven’t exactly got the market all to themselves, have they. You just proved my point that the market is still extremely open
If you knew anything about the technical aspects of media players and AppleTV, then you would probably realise how futile the AppleTV really is.
Futile as an idea? No. The AppleTV as an idea has a hell of a lot of potential. It’s just the first version of it sucks quite a bit.
Um, again not quite right. 
Windows doesn’t just kill OSX for gaming, it annihilates it. Not only that, people have been using their PCs for movies watching TV for a very very very long time.
After all these years, you have never seen what people can really do with Windows.
In number of titles, yes. However, thanks to both Vista and multithreaded OpenGL in OS X, the Mac now has the performance advantage for OpenGL games over Windows. But as I said, there are many interesting projects that could affect this.
Look up a dictionary on what monopoly mean. Your ignorance levels that of a child.
I know full well the definition of a monopoly is. And yet the definition doesn’t really apply to Apple and the Mac. Is Apple the sole producers of OS X? Yes. Is Apple the sole producer of Macs? Yes. Is Apple the sole producer of iPods? Yes. However, a monopoly is of a market, not of a product. Apple does not have a monopoly in the OS or Computer or MP3 player markets. Technically MS never had a monopoly with Windows, but they had a big enough share to be seen as a monopoly when they abused it.
Then why don’t Apple allow OSX to run on other computers? Why don’t iPods play WMA files? My new player plays FLAC.
There is a difference between allowing someone to use something and having a monopoly. MS won’t allow many versions of Vista to be virtualised. That doesn’t mean they’re a monopoly. I think it’s you who needs to go and read up on the definition of Monopoly.
Depending on who’s holding pole position and why it is there. If its operating systems, then of course it would be Microsoft but they don’t try to monopolise the market with the kind of marketing that Apple does. Windows allows more 3rd party software than any other OS. It is far from trying to force people to use IE, Media player or movie maker. Windows is popular because it doesn’t tie you to Microsoft products and because you can run just able anything on it.Â
I’m sorry but that’s the biggest pile of crap I’ve seen from you so far. You are trying to suggest that MS wouldn’t dream of using it’s position to get people to use it’s products but Apple always does? Windows does not allow more 3rd party software than any other OS. It has more 3rd party software than any other OS, but it does not allow it any more or less than other platform. Does Apple stop me from making a certain application? No. I also don’t see Apple forcing people to use Safari, QT Player or iMovie. They’re there on the system, just like IE, Media Player and Movie Maker. If I didn’t want them I could easily delete Safari, QT Player and iMovie. Can you delete IE, Media Player and Movie Maker from your system completely and replace them with other software but have no adverse side effects?
Apple integrates WebKit and Quicktime into the system. There are there to be used by any application. I can delete Safari or QT Player or any app by any company that uses either of those two technologies and it will not affect my system.
Compare this to the inferiorPods which has the mp3 player market (in America only). Apple’s only real strategy is to use marketing to monopolise the digital audio market. That’s it. The iPods are not even close to being the best media players.Â
It all depends on what you use to define the best media player as. Some people look for the one with the biggest feature list and call that the best. Some people look for the one that’s the easiest to use and call that the best. The iPod is very good at what it does. Yes it doesn’t have everything but the kitchen sink like other players do, but that doesn’t make it a crap player. Yes it doesn’t have an FM Tuner, does that make it worse at playing MP3s?.
They’re up there because Apple says so, and because people like yourself say so.
50% right. Yes, they are up there because people like myself say so, because people like myself are those who have decided that the iPod is a good music player and have bought one. If it was a simple case of Apple saying “we have the most market share” then they would be the best in all markets they compete in. It is the people who buy the products that give the company the market share.
And BTW, Apple has a 5% in the market because it sucks as a computer company (except for those disabled users of course).
Couldn’t resit yourself could you. Care to explain how it sucks? I mean, I’m a programmer, a student and a musician and I don’t think it sucks for what I do. In fact I think it’s extremely good for what I do. Apple has 5% of the market because of a few mistakes it made during the late 80s and 90s but also because of gains it has made since then.
It’s quite obvious when people have no experience or knowledge of OS X Macs, isn’t it?
Why do people like informer and LordDaMan feel the need to bash a product they don’t own or use on a regular basis? What compels them to do it?
I’ve enjoyed using the same computer for Linux and Windows for several years way before Apple even thought of migrating to Linux and Intel!!!
informer, Linux has been on the Mac for years and years and years. Apple hasn’t migrated to Linux. They are now using Intel processors, but they haven’t “migrated to Linux”. I don’t have a clue what you are talking about there. This is a great example of someone who knows nothing about Macs trying to bash Macs.
I’ve also enjoyed watching movies in my living room using my computer for years (thank you ATI) Apple woke up years later to get on the bandwagon and it seems like their users did too
How old are you? Seriously, how old are you? Please don’t ignore this question. I’m 39.
The reason I ask you how old you are is because you clearly don’t have a clue about computing history.
informer, I was watching movies on laser disc through Macs back in the 80s using RasterOps and Radius NuBus cards for 680XX-based Macs.
Before Windows 95 even shipped, in 1993, I was watching The Beatles’ “Hard Days Night” that was shipped commercially on CD-ROM for Macs only using Quicktime. This was before there was anything like Quicktime on Windows 3.
I had Quicktime screensavers of Star Wars on the Mac before there was any digital video at all built into Windows.
Quicktime shipped in 1991, but there were all kinds of 3rd party video cards for Macs well before that for the NuBus slot (first plug-n-play cards).
DirectX shipped in Sept. 1995.
You don’t have a clue what you are talking about.
Now, you might want to rephrase your point and start talking about how Microsoft got into the media extender business before Apple. They did.
But it’s funny when people start arguing who is innovative and who isn’t without knowing what the word “innovate” means.
innovate |ˈinəˌvÄ?t| verb [ intrans. ] make changes in something established, esp. by introducing new methods, ideas, or products
I see guys like informer and LordDaMan arguing “invent” versus “innovate” all the time.
Apple is really good a







1.
For the most part, I would say that I agree with you. However, I do believe that Linux will be the next desktop revolution. My belief is that the Mac won’t get the lion’s share of the market because it is not Windows-like. However, Linux is. It goes out of it’s way to try and be like Windows in order to be more accessible. Apple on the other hand is a good deal different from Windows. Window management, application installation/uninstallation and a whole bunch of small things make the Mac a different kind of experience.
However, I do agree with you that Linux needs to embrace closed-source projects before it even has a chance of taking off. It’s just not going to gain a critical mass of developers making normal consumer software if they’re pressured to do things with their code that they may not necessarily want to do.