My, we’re quite the optimist, aren’t we, kuaidang?

I agree and disargee. I think conditions are ripe right now for Apple to grow their sales and market share, and I think the iPod is part of the reason why. I think there is a good chance it will work this time. The iPod’s popularity has given people a reason to give Apple a second look. Do I predict Apple instantly selling 3 million Macs per quarter? No. But I do think the combination of Tiger and the current Apple hardware lineup will draw more into the Mac fold.

And I don’t think it will cannibalize iMac and eMac sales. The iMac is a prosumer machine; people willing to pay more for the extra horsepower will still buy the iMac. The eMac is more at risk, but it is still an attractive choice for schools and those who want as little hassle as possible with their computer.

I think conditions are ripe right now for Apple to grow their sales and market share, and I think the iPod is part of the reason why.

I think the optimal time for Apple to increase marketshare has pasted already.  Longhorn is breathing down everyone’s necks and if you think all the Longhorn talk that went on last year was a lot then you’ll be blown away by all the press it gets this year.  There will be new builds in April at WinHec, in May for Beta 1, and in October for Beta 2.  The time for Apple to increase marketshare was during the virus fiasco in 2003.  They could have rode the same kind of wave that FireFox did but no wthey’re fighting an uphill battle.

The problem with the Mac isn’t going away because of the iPod.  People still don’t know the advantages and of Macs having all the features of PC’s.  The iPod doesn’t change that.  Lot’s of people like to talk about how the success of the iPod is going to get the Apple brand out there for customers to see-- they make it seem as if no one has ever heard the term Mac or Apple before.  I’ll tell you this, I worked in computer sales for years and just about everyone knows the Apple/Mac brand.  They maybe ignorant of what a Mac can do but the brand recognition has always been there.

I think there is a good chance it will work this time. The iPodís popularity has given people a reason to give Apple a second look. Do I predict Apple instantly selling 3 million Macs per quarter? No. But I do think the combination of Tiger and the current Apple hardware lineup will draw more into the Mac fold.

People said the same thing about 10.2 and 10.3 and marketshare hasn’t improved at all.  Tiger isn’t that special.  Other than the way the OS looks there’s nothing in it that is going to “wow” the average customer (over XP).  And when Longhorn comes out next year even that advantage will disappear.  If Apple were to start a bunch of ads talking about spyware and viruses then they might get somewhere but they still have a ton of other hurdles to overcome.

And I donít think it will cannibalize iMac and eMac sales. The iMac is a prosumer machine; people willing to pay more for the extra horsepower will still buy the iMac. The eMac is more at risk, but it is still an attractive choice for schools and those who want as little hassle as possible with their computer.

I think you’re dead wrong about that.  I think the eMac is as good as dead.  It’s got the same specs as the Mini and the price difference between the two is about the cost of a nice, big LCD.  The emac is dead unless Apple takes some pretty extreme measures in model separation.

Many people bought iMacs because they were the cheapest way to get a Mac with an LCD.  Well all those customers are going to buy Mini’s now.  These are the same dedicated Mac users that Apple has always had, who want a Mac with an LCD anfd like many Mac users they care very little about small differences in specs or performance. 

As far as schools wanting the ease of an All-in-one, I don’t by that either.  Most schools these days use PC’s and they don’t seem to have any problems with that stuff.  It’s kinda like the arguement about the one button mouse-- it was a big deal to have that extra simplicity when no one knew much about computers but it’s been 20 years since the MAc was introduced and most people have become accustomed to PC’s, separate monitors, and two button mice-- so it’s really no problem.