An interesting topic has come up in my online Flash course, and with Macworld Expo looming, what better time to tackle the subject; namely, what web trends do I predict?  Such a broad topic can not be answered briefly, as it covers a multitude of issues and gives no specific time frame.  However, these are my opinions, speculations and predictions on where the Internet is headed, along with the future of technology, media, and society.

The Here and Very Soon

Over the short term, we will see a continued increase in “social networking,” as is termed numerous sites, trends, and methods for sharing data.  Social networking has evolved over the years as the Internet has matured; we’ve gone from Usenet lists to IRC and IM to message boards to blogs, profile-based sites like MySpace or Friendster, and Twitter.  We have vast worlds that take place entirely within the realm of games, including World of Warcraft and Second Life.  Sooner or later, someone will come up with the next big means of communication with random strangers from around the world, and social skills in the real world will further diminish, especially among the younger child, teenage and young adult crowds.  What technologies and methodologies this new modus operandi will specifically are not important, only that it allows people to connect with each other in some subtly unique way.

We will also see a slow but steady decline in information-gathering, news reporting, and overall social commentary.  Reputable news agencies, though sufficiently numerous today, are limited in quantity and will gradually begin to give way to new sources of information.  Reuters, the Associated Press and the Washington Post are already just beginning to feel pressure from sites like Newsvine for readers’ attention in certain areas, and paper publications are downsizing and cutting resources due to declining readership from cyber competition.  Well-established encyclopedias are losing out to the onslaught of information that is Wikipedia, despite the latter’s comparative lack of accountability and reliability.  Bloggers and Vloggers are beginning to become an en-masse source of news and information as one’s reputation as a blogger increasingly collides with that of a journalist.

Content and media is already heavily invested in the Internet, and the trends will only continue.  Portable devices that can surf the Internet, stream (and capture) video, and store many gigabytes of content are stampeding their respective markets.  Online download sites such as the Amazon Music Store, iTunes Store, and numerous other music and video stores, as well as numerous online streaming sites such as YouTube, Metacafe, and Veoh are giving traditional forms of audio and video distribution a serious run for their money, and show no sign of stopping.  Gradually, music and video distribution is going to become predominantly web-based, with new technologies like Blu-Ray or HD DVD becoming irrelevant before they’ve had a chance to take hold.  This, combined with the rise of on-demand content streaming through channels like TiVo, will lead to a consumer being able to watch or listen to anything, anywhere, at any time of day, in superb quality.

The Next Decade

The next five to ten years hold some very seductive promises, with some very disturbing threats.  As miniaturization and nanotechnology becomes increasingly cost-effective and mass-produceable, electronics will find their way into new devices as we’ve never seen before.  Holographic technology holds some enticing possibilities for the future of portable devices, which, coupled with the aforementioned increase in portable connectivity, will put such devices literally everywhere.  Automobiles are already seeing surprising advances such as self-parking and even a complete autopilot, paving the way for the refinement and perfection of the driverless car in the next several years, allowing passengers to partake in nearly any task on the go, and completely redefining the industry.  No longer will one “drive” anywhere, but simply “ride,” though old-schoolers will insist on remaining behind the wheel and in full control of their vehicles.  The relative ease and quality of computer-generated video content will steadily improve, leading to a burgeoning industry that will compete with live-action filmography and create a new Hollywood in voice acting, as well as lower the bar for entry to the field.

The future is not without its pitfalls, of course.  With new technology, companies and governments will find new ways of wielding control over consumers and citizens.  Rampant software piracy will lead to much software becoming activation- or subscription-based, with software companies able to exert complete control over who gets to access what, when, and for how long.  The government will find new loopholes in controlling technology as new advances defy old definitions of legality; concepts like net neutrality will become heated topics as telecommunications companies slowly implement some of their methods of control and lawmakers struggle to keep up with the pace of advancement.  Increased miniaturization always carries the menace of Big Brother-style citizen spying, as unnoticeable listening devices become more available and cost-effective.  And don’t forget what happens when the power goes out, and all of our toys stop working.

Welcome to the Universe

Beyond ten years, things start to get a little murky.  The future greater than a dime from today could be very much like the present, or it could radically shift in ways we can barely fathom right now.  Some things seem certain: digital connectivity will continue to increase and converge, and as systems and networks become more compatible with each other, information will flood the etherwaves.  Technology will continue to improve and work its way into new niches, and we will wonder how we got along without it.  Companies like Apple, Microsoft, Dell, Hewlett-Packard and Intel will probably still be around, but they may also succumb to a new competitor, or even to changed market forces.

The rapid pace of technology has and will have lasting social and economic impacts.  Third world countries are building the infrastructure for the Internet, road networks, and entertainment businesses, and one day the global cyberpopulation will top 2 billion¹, much of it outside the United States, Europe, and Asia.  With all this increased traffic in the cybersphere, competition for the almighty dollar/euro/yen/etc will be supremely fierce, but the number of individuals and businesses willing to pay for online services will skyrocket as well.  The Internet as a whole will have matured immensely, with new technologies, programming languages, and lots of hardware providing enourmous infrastructure to the virtual world.

Some possibilities are more nebulous.  Will we have fuel cell-powered cars, or will we still be dependent on oil?  Will we still have oil anymore?  When the oil runs out, what happens to industries that absolutely depend on it, such as plastics?  Plastic is found in nearly everything these days, from credit cards to computer parts to building materials, storage containers, and retail packaging, and without oil there is no plastic.  Will we have a new supermaterial, or will we have finally discovered, on a global scale, how to properly recycle?  The possibilities and speculations are literally endless.

Meanwhile, Back in the Present

However, all of that is quite a way off.  For the time being, we can look forward to such mundane advancements as new social networks, new ways of using old programming languages, and new toys from Apple, pending one Stevenote.  The future lies ahead, and it holds many profits, peaks, and pitfalls.  We as a species will embrace what we will and sidestep what we can, but altogether it is quite an exhilerating time to be alive and active in the world of computers and technology.

¹According to the Internet World Stats site, the online population as of November 30, 2007, was 1.26 billion out of a total world population of 6.61 billion.  36.6% of those are in Asia, 27.2% are in Europe, and 18.8% of the total online population is in North America.  Somehow, 30.1% of the Internet is still in English, with Chinese coming in second at 14.7% and Spanish in third at 9.0%.↩